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Prediction markets for Wells

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.7%chance

878914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

739

By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.

Jan 5, 10:59 AMJan 12, 8:00 AM

87%chance

258469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2561

393

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

67.57%chance

748052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

933

EOY 2025: Will open LLMs perform at least as well as 50 Elo below closed-source LLMs on coding?

Jul 27, 10:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.79%chance

247041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

872

Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027?

Dec 18, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.2%chance

321275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1247

507

By 2030 will there be a well accepted theory of the causes of Alzheimer's?

Nov 23, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.49%chance

221269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

902

By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts

Jan 5, 10:41 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

23.44%chance

221163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

889

Will there be a well accepted formal definition of value alignment for AI by 2030?

Oct 4, 4:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.72%chance

23709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1179

913

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM

68.15%chance

14493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

965

If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?

Nov 18, 5:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.26%chance

19312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

939

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Will "You’re probably overestimating how well you u..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 30, 10:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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