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Prediction markets for Werner

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Jan 3, 8:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.95%chance

13623474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1424

703

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.88%chance

2319497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27247

3675

Will JD Vance ever be president?

Jul 22, 12:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.41%chance

528036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4658

3459

Robin Hanson wins a Nobel Prize in Economics?

Oct 10, 7:10 AMDec 31, 8:10 AM

16.5%chance

163804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2249

445

Will the United States detain Gustavo Petro by the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.47%chance

42131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3094

324

By 2040, will Wikipedia cite de Vere as the true author of the works traditionally attributed Shakespeare?

Jul 19, 12:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.21%chance

92012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2361

424

Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?

Dec 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

141460

OptionProbability

Henry Oliver

Magnus Carlsen

Kim Bowes

Patrick Collison (again)

Hollis Robbins

Tom Holland (the historian)

Jamie Dimon

Francis Fukuyama

Dean Ball

Emily Wilson

C Thi Nguyen

Jan Swafford

Sir Demis Hassabis

Robert Sapolsky

Ted Chiang

Samuel Scheffler

Martha Nussbaum

Will Baude

Werner Herzog

Bishop Robert Barron

William Gibson

Vaclav Smil

Michel Houellebecq

Jonathan Sumption

Knausgaard (again)

Kathleen Tyson

John Ioannidis

Aella

Jensen Huang

Haruki Murakami

Cremieux

Bill Gates

Thomas Sowell

Novak Djokovic

Bari Weiss

Hillary Clinton

Scott Alexander

Oprah Winfrey

100

91

90

52

45

41

41

40

34

34

34

34

33

32

31

30

30

30

28

28

28

28

25

24

20

17

17

16

15

15

15

12

9

8

7

6

6

6

Will Erdogan be president of Turkey at the start of 2029?

Dec 24, 4:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20%chance

71148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

31.21%chance

7800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

674

Will Gloria Álvarez ever be president of Guatemala?

Jun 17, 7:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.49%chance

1600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

631

Will Imran Khan be released from prison before the next American presidential administration?

Nov 7, 9:41 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

69.23%chance

1500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1500

667

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

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