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Prediction markets for Werner

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.03%chance

2534764

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39516

2534

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Jan 3, 8:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

14926583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

869

Will JD Vance ever be president?

Jul 22, 12:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.73%chance

549252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4170

3844

100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030?

Mar 5, 3:30 PMJan 1, 3:29 PM

15.23%chance

74600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

Robin Hanson wins a Nobel Prize in Economics?

Oct 10, 7:10 AMDec 31, 8:10 AM

20.26%chance

204182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1984

504

Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?

Dec 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

182598

OptionProbability

Kim Bowes

Martha Nussbaum

Henry Oliver

Magnus Carlsen

Dean Ball

Rebecca Lowe

Emily Wilson

Patrick Collison (again)

Hollis Robbins

C Thi Nguyen

Francis Fukuyama

Tom Holland (the historian)

Jamie Dimon

Caroline Shaw

Ted Chiang

Will Baude

Sir Demis Hassabis

Jan Swafford

Bishop Robert Barron

William Gibson

Vaclav Smil

Robert Sapolsky

Jonathan Sumption

Samuel Scheffler

Aella

Knausgaard (again)

Jensen Huang

Kathleen Tyson

John Ioannidis

Werner Herzog

Haruki Murakami

Cremieux

Michel Houellebecq

David Runciman

William Hague

Ben Goldacre

Oprah Winfrey

Dua Lipa

Hillary Clinton

Thomas Sowell

Novak Djokovic

Bill Gates

Lana Del Rey

Bari Weiss

Scott Alexander

100

100

100

78

63

53

51

48

45

42

39

38

38

31

29

28

27

27

26

26

26

24

22

21

19

19

17

16

16

15

14

14

14

13

13

13

10

10

9

9

8

7

7

6

5

By 2040, will Wikipedia cite de Vere as the true author of the works traditionally attributed Shakespeare?

Jul 19, 12:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.28%chance

92518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2555

391

Will Erdogan be president of Turkey at the start of 2029?

Dec 24, 4:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

23.4%chance

81341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

553

Will Gloria Álvarez ever be president of Guatemala?

Jun 17, 7:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.77%chance

1815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1370

730

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

31.21%chance

7800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2235

1424

Will Imran Khan be released from prison before the next American presidential administration?

Nov 7, 9:41 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

62.15%chance

1719

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1281

780

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.09%chance

5532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

940

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