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Prediction markets for Werner

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.51%chance

189152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17089

5852

Will JD Vance ever be president?

Jul 22, 12:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.66%chance

457326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5277

3072

Will a large government organization be run as a futarchy before 2030?

May 10, 11:13 PMJan 1, 11:55 PM

18.98%chance

325448

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

765

By 2040, will Wikipedia cite de Vere as the true author of the works traditionally attributed Shakespeare?

Jul 19, 12:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.21%chance

92012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2361

424

Will Erdogan be president of Turkey at the start of 2029?

Dec 24, 4:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.3%chance

6665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1517

659

Will Gloria Álvarez ever be president of Guatemala?

Jun 17, 7:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.49%chance

1600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

631

Will Imran Khan be released from prison before the next American presidential administration?

Nov 7, 9:41 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

69.23%chance

1500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1500

667

Will I win the 2025 "National Middle East History Competition"?

Jul 16, 7:01 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

42.06%chance

6443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

852

Will I get a job in the state department before October?

Jul 18, 8:41 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

46.94%chance

8378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

941

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Will Sovereign House continue to exist in some form by 2026?

May 18, 9:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.73%chance

4126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

891

Will prediction markets be used to allocate UKRI funding before 2040?

Aug 30, 9:18 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.13%chance

6120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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