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Prediction markets for Werner

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.51%chance

189152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17089

5852

Will JD Vance ever be president?

Jul 22, 12:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.7%chance

517973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4630

3479

Will a large government organization be run as a futarchy before 2030?

May 10, 11:13 PMJan 1, 11:55 PM

15.13%chance

325648

OptionVotes

NO

YES

970

965

Robin Hanson wins a Nobel Prize in Economics?

Oct 10, 7:10 AMDec 31, 8:10 AM

17.8%chance

163704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2149

465

Will Sovereign House continue to exist in some form by 2026?

May 18, 9:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

92.73%chance

72576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3572

280

By 2040, will Wikipedia cite de Vere as the true author of the works traditionally attributed Shakespeare?

Jul 19, 12:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.21%chance

92012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2361

424

Will Erdogan be president of Turkey at the start of 2029?

Dec 24, 4:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20%chance

71148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

31.21%chance

7800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

674

Will Gloria Álvarez ever be president of Guatemala?

Jun 17, 7:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.49%chance

1600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

631

Will Imran Khan be released from prison before the next American presidential administration?

Nov 7, 9:41 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

69.23%chance

1500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1500

667

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Will a member of the Bukele family show up to Second Order: San Salvador?

Oct 31, 7:22 PMJan 11, 11:59 PM

47.13%chance

4250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

944

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