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Prediction markets for Werner

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.91%chance

2532952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39927

2508

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Jan 3, 8:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.72%chance

14124712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1593

628

Will JD Vance ever be president?

Jul 22, 12:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.15%chance

538105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4684

3441

100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030?

Mar 5, 3:30 PMJan 1, 3:29 PM

12.81%chance

64383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2609

383

Robin Hanson wins a Nobel Prize in Economics?

Oct 10, 7:10 AMDec 31, 8:10 AM

16.5%chance

163804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2249

445

Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?

Dec 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

182116

OptionProbability

Henry Oliver

Kim Bowes

Magnus Carlsen

C Thi Nguyen

Emily Wilson

Patrick Collison (again)

Rebecca Lowe

Dean Ball

Hollis Robbins

Francis Fukuyama

Tom Holland (the historian)

Jamie Dimon

Jan Swafford

Ted Chiang

Samuel Scheffler

Martha Nussbaum

Will Baude

Bishop Robert Barron

William Gibson

Sir Demis Hassabis

Vaclav Smil

Robert Sapolsky

Jonathan Sumption

Aella

Knausgaard (again)

Kathleen Tyson

John Ioannidis

David Runciman

William Hague

Ben Goldacre

Werner Herzog

Jensen Huang

Haruki Murakami

Cremieux

Michel Houellebecq

Hillary Clinton

Oprah Winfrey

Thomas Sowell

Bill Gates

Lana Del Rey

Novak Djokovic

Dua Lipa

Bari Weiss

Scott Alexander

100

92

78

66

55

52

48

46

45

42

41

41

34

31

30

30

30

28

28

28

28

27

24

21

20

17

17

17

17

17

16

15

15

15

14

10

10

9

9

9

8

8

7

5

By 2040, will Wikipedia cite de Vere as the true author of the works traditionally attributed Shakespeare?

Jul 19, 12:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.21%chance

92012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2361

424

Will Erdogan be president of Turkey at the start of 2029?

Dec 24, 4:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20%chance

71148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

31.21%chance

7800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

674

Will Gloria Álvarez ever be president of Guatemala?

Jun 17, 7:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.49%chance

1600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

631

Will Imran Khan be released from prison before the next American presidential administration?

Nov 7, 9:41 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

69.23%chance

1500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1500

667

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

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