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Prediction markets for Werner

Will Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?

May 23, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.88%chance

2535264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40016

2502

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Jan 3, 8:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.56%chance

15528098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1444

693

Will JD Vance ever be president?

Jul 22, 12:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.2%chance

5510215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4990

3240

100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030?

Mar 5, 3:30 PMJan 1, 3:29 PM

15.23%chance

74600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

Robin Hanson wins a Nobel Prize in Economics?

Oct 10, 7:10 AMDec 31, 8:10 AM

20.26%chance

204182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1984

504

Which people will Tyler Cowen invite to his Conversations podcast in 2026?

Dec 24, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

182749

OptionProbability

Kim Bowes

Henry Oliver

Magnus Carlsen

Dean Ball

Francis Fukuyama

Rebecca Lowe

Emily Wilson

Patrick Collison (again)

C Thi Nguyen

Tom Holland (the historian)

Jamie Dimon

Caroline Shaw

Hollis Robbins

Bishop Robert Barron

William Gibson

Robert Sapolsky

Sir Demis Hassabis

Jonathan Sumption

Ted Chiang

Samuel Scheffler

Will Baude

Jan Swafford

Knausgaard (again)

Jensen Huang

Aella

Kathleen Tyson

John Ioannidis

Werner Herzog

Vaclav Smil

Haruki Murakami

Cremieux

Michel Houellebecq

David Runciman

William Hague

Ben Goldacre

Oprah Winfrey

Dua Lipa

Hillary Clinton

Thomas Sowell

Bari Weiss

Novak Djokovic

Bill Gates

Lana Del Rey

Scott Alexander

Martha Nussbaum

100

100

66

63

57

48

46

43

42

38

38

31

29

26

26

24

23

22

21

21

20

20

19

17

17

16

16

15

15

14

14

14

13

13

13

10

10

9

9

9

8

7

7

6

0

By 2040, will Wikipedia cite de Vere as the true author of the works traditionally attributed Shakespeare?

Jul 19, 12:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.28%chance

92518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2555

391

Will Erdogan be president of Turkey at the start of 2029?

Dec 24, 4:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

23.4%chance

81341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

553

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

33.02%chance

8850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2129

1474

Will Gloria Álvarez ever be president of Guatemala?

Jun 17, 7:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.77%chance

1815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1370

730

Will Imran Khan be released from prison before the next American presidential administration?

Nov 7, 9:41 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

62.15%chance

1719

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1281

780

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.09%chance

5532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

940

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