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Prediction markets for Wilde

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

Apr 22, 9:43 PMDec 28, 7:59 AM

21.5%chance

342367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1715

685

There will be a name for escaped self-perpetuating AI systems in the wild, and it will be commonly used by mid 2027

Aug 22, 4:26 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

29.13%chance

191663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

641

Will wild-animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue by the beginning of 2100?

Mar 26, 1:03 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.66%chance

351469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

978

Will wild polio be reintroduced in the Americas before August 25th, 2029?

Jul 8, 12:38 AMAug 26, 2:59 AM

13.42%chance

141199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

903

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?

Apr 5, 11:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.67%chance

211150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1591

629

Will there be at least one fatal attack on a human by a wild orca by 2035?

May 21, 5:20 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.36%chance

181140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

869

BOTW stands for breath of the wild. will i beat it by 2099?

Dec 6, 2:03 AMJan 1, 9:00 AM

56.96%chance

291138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

562

Will New World screwworm (maggots that eat animals alive) be effectively eradicated from the wild by 2030?

Jan 10, 10:14 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.98%chance

23636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1366

928

Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing

Jan 29, 5:14 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

55.22%chance

22530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

931

Will any Wild Card team play in either NFL conference championship game?

Jan 20, 3:36 PMJan 25, 11:59 PM

52.34%chance

9349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?

Nov 2, 9:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.75%chance

10231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

1425

Will there be a Zelda: Breath of the Wild adaptation for Virtual Reality by end of 2030?

Jan 7, 7:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.85%chance

13109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

970

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