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Prediction markets for Will

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.88%chance

433011800543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26103

17825

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

94.27%chance

9719456674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

22417

8578

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

77.13%chance

7791261127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102671

88530

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

82.56%chance

351783096

OptionVotes

NO

YES

217924

45700

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.31%chance

990553403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16145

11680

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

21.61%chance

317468587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164387

73562

[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]

Nov 6, 11:25 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

49%chance

522372928

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.2%chance

343241988

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

1229

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

243170837

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Oct 25, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.61%chance

250138766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

432

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

369133327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2199

2191

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67%chance

8456997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143166

70518

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