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Prediction markets for Will

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.81%chance

419911291967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30365

16144

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

94.86%chance

9499316662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

24774

8443

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25582230974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10745

2082

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.38%chance

10001125813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12206

8699

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84%chance

1341061015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

745

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

78.72%chance

572986193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

100758

95289

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

20%chance

871502474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2352

720

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

555501296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3489

1137

[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]

Nov 6, 11:25 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

49%chance

388295220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

47%chance

242199053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1239

1010

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

239170459

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

65.7%chance

7051445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139076

72591

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