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Prediction markets for Will

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.67%chance

412611081835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28648

16752

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

93%chance

9118704269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18636

8827

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.7%chance

24871933296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9966

2320

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.99%chance

2161715494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2682

1537

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.73%chance

78970558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200868

63036

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.96%chance

958695792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9982

9903

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

22%chance

829421112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

759

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

26.41%chance

264384380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139532

81292

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

44.51%chance

202331504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111303

89910

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

46%chance

232195052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1215

1031

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.66%chance

235169020

OptionProbability

YES

NO

4766

4764

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

62.79%chance

6342394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129891

76988

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