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Prediction markets for Will

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.06%chance

442912024177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30125

16229

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

95.02%chance

9869796970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

25468

8406

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.13%chance

2452006836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3780

1384

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

76.66%chance

9101547992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103227

86679

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

83.57%chance

402889021

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225790

44097

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

20.41%chance

341547174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171876

71571

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

65.56%chance

298534392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5399

4087

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

21.49%chance

907523247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2238

750

[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]

Nov 6, 11:25 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

49%chance

567473481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

351261778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1913

1396

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

244171107

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

66.99%chance

8957065

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143123

70539

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