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Prediction markets for Will

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.67%chance

448712290318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25531

18085

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96%chance

99910348624

OptionVotes

NO

YES

31064

8145

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

13.97%chance

2492021198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2858

1508

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

43.41%chance

21791949563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4954

3804

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

80.42%chance

9411659070

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103559

98637

Will WW3 happen before GTA6?

Jul 2, 10:02 AMNov 18, 11:00 PM

9.67%chance

5481224029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28950

4597

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

19.59%chance

363599059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177418

70185

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

18.93%chance

919546151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2443

698

[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]

Nov 6, 11:25 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

49.5%chance

604511510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

66%chance

286265221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1721

641

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

246171958

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.02%chance

9257160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143218

70492

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