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Prediction markets for Will

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.71%chance

475814557093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

22541

18234

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96%chance

101110548407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

31069

8145

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Feb 4, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.84%chance

8174171933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3512

1821

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

85%chance

11252153427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133827

92378

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

58.84%chance

22502116876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5192

3628

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.04%chance

2622075021

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1787

1646

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

15.79%chance

398763848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208616

63520

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.06%chance

1047632621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16041

15185

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 10, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.52%chance

659285803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19636

11900

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.66%chance

249175658

OptionProbability

YES

NO

4766

4764

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.55%chance

10358928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144964

69643

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

Nov 6, 12:20 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

841502

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

67

33

0

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