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Prediction markets for Will Wagner

Conditional on a MAGA Republican being elected US President, will NATO be attacked by Russian-allied forces in 2025?

Dec 26, 4:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

6.72%chance

332356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1807

890

Will research into digital sentience / the fundamental nature of consciousness get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 7:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

67.69%chance

191382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1299

799

Was the Wagner Group’s rebellion in June 2023 a strategic ruse staged by Russian leadership?

Jun 26, 4:36 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.9%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

902

Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?

Jun 26, 12:33 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

39.89%chance

27644

OptionVotes

NO

YES

317

100

Will cryonics or brain-emulation research get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 4:04 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.72%chance

13340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

891

Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:42 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

80.25%chance

6261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

339

178

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

Will wild-animal welfare interventions get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 2:14 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.97%chance

9145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

334

227

Will mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions in LMIC get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:06 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

64.69%chance

5110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

226

Will alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 6:12 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.09%chance

696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

281

157

10B valuation for company founded by a 2023 Thiel Fellow by 2030

Mar 23, 5:49 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

33.41%chance

323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

96

Will the Patient Philanthropy Fund grow to $10m+ before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:22 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.75%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

140

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