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Top stories

Josh Willie Elected Tasmanian Labor Leader With Janie Finlay Deputy After Dean Winter No-Confidence Motion; Liberals Retain Power in Hung Parliament

Josh Willie Elected Tasmanian Labor Leader With Janie Finlay Deputy After Dean Winter No-Confidence Motion; Liberals Retain Power in Hung Parliament

Authors

6

4 months ago

aespa Previews “Rich Man” Mini-Album Ahead of 5 Sept. Launch

aespa Previews “Rich Man” Mini-Album Ahead of 5 Sept. Launch

Authors

3

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Winter

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.54%chance

23797440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1640

605

Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?

Jun 11, 12:13 PMDec 11, 10:59 PM

3.84%chance

8728473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3718

758

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

9019108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

1690

In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?

Oct 26, 6:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5512551

OptionProbability

2030+ or never

2029

2027

2028

2026

2025

2024

63

10

9

8

7

3

1

Will an AI winter happen by 2030?

Mar 27, 10:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.78%chance

1226351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1332

1101

Will George R. R. Martin's next "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"?

Nov 10, 9:11 PMApr 29, 10:09 PM

22.55%chance

126334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1853

540

Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030?

Jun 12, 6:54 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.47%chance

194817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2030

493

Winds of Winter released before 2027?

Apr 21, 1:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

132360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Mar 15, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.9%chance

542265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

976

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.81%chance

361276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

720

Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?

Dec 24, 6:32 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

46.04%chance

13755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

924

Will Preston Jacobs/SweetRobin's "The Winds of Winter" fan-fiction be completed before the real thing is announced?

Sep 30, 12:46 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

42.2%chance

5710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1170

854

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