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Top stories

Josh Willie Elected Tasmanian Labor Leader With Janie Finlay Deputy After Dean Winter No-Confidence Motion; Liberals Retain Power in Hung Parliament

Josh Willie Elected Tasmanian Labor Leader With Janie Finlay Deputy After Dean Winter No-Confidence Motion; Liberals Retain Power in Hung Parliament

Authors

6

6 months ago

aespa Previews “Rich Man” Mini-Album Ahead of 5 Sept. Launch

aespa Previews “Rich Man” Mini-Album Ahead of 5 Sept. Launch

Authors

3

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Winter

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24%chance

24299057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1835

535

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

39.77%chance

9219446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2552

1512

In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?

Oct 26, 6:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5513424

OptionProbability

2030+ or never

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

64

11

9

8

5

2

1

Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030?

Jun 12, 6:54 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.83%chance

247281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

984

Will an AI winter happen by 2030?

Mar 27, 10:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.96%chance

1256889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1396

1236

Winds of Winter released before 2027?

Apr 21, 1:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.11%chance

223008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

432

23

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Mar 15, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.9%chance

542265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

976

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.81%chance

361276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

720

Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?

Dec 24, 6:32 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

39.53%chance

161155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

809

Will Preston Jacobs/SweetRobin's "The Winds of Winter" fan-fiction be completed before the real thing is announced?

Sep 30, 12:46 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

42.2%chance

5710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1170

854

2026 Winter Olympics: Figure Skating Gold Medal Winner (W)

Jan 12, 12:12 PMFeb 16, 11:59 PM

3364

OptionProbability

Adeliia PETROSIAN (AIN)

Alysa LIU (USA)

Amber GLENN (USA)

Kaori SAKAMOTO (JPN)

Other

22

22

22

20

15

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

941

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