Winters News

2 days ago

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25%chance

23593419

OptionVotes

YES

1788

550

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.56%chance

8517148

OptionVotes

YES

2279

1711

In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?

Oct 26, 6:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5011558

OptionProbability

2030+ or never

2029

2027

2028

2026

2025

2024

Will an AI winter happen by 2030?

Mar 27, 10:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.81%chance

1195972

OptionVotes

YES

1365

1022

Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030?

Jun 12, 6:54 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.69%chance

174547

OptionVotes

YES

1866

536

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Mar 15, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.38%chance

532245

OptionVotes

YES

990

983

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61%chance

32757

OptionVotes

YES

1078

853

Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?

Dec 24, 6:32 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

50.88%chance

11655

OptionVotes

YES

1018

983

Will True Detective Season 5 be released before The Winds of Winter? (George R. R. Martin's next Game of Thrones Book)

Jan 17, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.67%chance

17499

OptionVotes

YES

1159

920

Will half life 3 release before The Winds of Winter?

Jun 21, 5:46 AMJan 1, 5:44 AM

65.44%chance

7386

OptionVotes

YES

1376

727

Winds of Winter released before 2027?

Apr 21, 1:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.89%chance

10336

OptionVotes

YES

239

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

YES

1100

941

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Prediction markets for Winters

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Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?

Will an AI winter happen by 2030?

Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030?

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?

Will True Detective Season 5 be released before The Winds of Winter? (George R. R. Martin's next Game of Thrones Book)

Will half life 3 release before The Winds of Winter?

Winds of Winter released before 2027?

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Latest stories

Join our channels

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