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Prediction markets for Yadav

Front Cover (US) of 'If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies' changes before release?

May 15, 11:59 AMSep 16, 11:52 AM

14%chance

322590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

467

92

Will Anthropic lose the Authors’ Copyright Class Action Lawsuit by end of 2026?

Jul 26, 1:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

131121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2168

802

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky or Nate Soares appear on the 80,000 Hours Podcast before 31 December 2025?

May 16, 2:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.91%chance

161118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1189

100

Will there be a major bioattack by EOY 2025 where an LLM provided relevant information to the attacker(s)?

May 25, 9:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.15%chance

12374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

429

23

Will JD Vance mention ‘If anyone builds it everyone dies’ by Nate Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky before 2026?

Jun 25, 1:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.21%chance

16363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will AI cause a decline in university enrolment by 2027 in the UK?

May 27, 10:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.5%chance

4199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

243

41

Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029?

Jun 29, 8:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

8126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

73

Will OpenAI pay damages exceeding $1 million in a tort liability case by 2028?

May 24, 4:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.72%chance

5121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

94

Will we get an update from Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025?

Jun 18, 1:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.1%chance

767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will the US Government create a public-private partnership with OpenAI by 2028?

May 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.4%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Will OpenAI implement any of the reform recommendations from The OpenAI Files by end of 2025?

Jun 19, 8:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.13%chance

333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will the Responsible Innovation and Safe Expertise (RISE) Act of 2025 become law in the United States before 1 Jan 2027?

Jun 12, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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