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Top stories

Peoria Sushi Owner Kelly Yu Faces Deportation Amid Bipartisan Support; Houston Trump-Themed Burger Owner Also Targeted for Visa Violations

US Domestic Policy

Peoria Sushi Owner Kelly Yu Faces Deportation Amid Bipartisan Support; Houston Trump-Themed Burger Owner Also Targeted for Visa Violations

Authors

7

2 days ago

Prediction markets for Yu

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

93%chance

8707785769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18636

8827

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.48%chance

565582188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10043

585

If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

Jul 2, 2:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.42%chance

264484823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10407

7511

Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book get on the NYT bestseller list in 2025?

May 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.39%chance

489223593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4164

3476

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

196136756

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

Other

Jack Thorne

John Pardon

Sam Raskin

Aleksandr Logunov

Will Sawin

Yu Deng

Hannah Larson

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Song Sun

Miguel Walsh

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Yibo Gao

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Igor Rodnianski

23

22

12

7

7

7

7

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.12%chance

17366341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8877

3516

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

51%chance

20846904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2654

983

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

Who will win the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?

May 8, 3:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

263095

OptionProbability

Fabiano Caruana

Praggnanandhaa R

Hikaru Nakamura

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Arjun Erigaisi

Alireza Firouzja

Magnus Carlsen

Gukesh D

Wei Yi

Other

Ding Liren

Wesley So

Viswanathan Anand

Sergey Karjakin

Leinier Dominguez Perez

Anish Giri

Shakhriyar Mamedyarov

Jan-Krzysztof Duda

Parham Maghsoodloo

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

Quang Liem Le

Levon Aronian

Veselin Topalov

Teimour Radjabov

Vidit Santosh Gujrathi

Vincent Keymer

Yu Yangyi

Alexander Grischuk

Richard Rapport

Vladislav Artemiev

Alexey Sarana

Daniil Dubov

Wang Hao

M. Amin Tabatabaei

N/A (e.g. tournament cancelled)

21

14

12

7

7

7

5

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Jose Ricon, Ben Yu, Claire Wang, Sigil Wen, ishaan chugh, Asher, and Euan Ong all go penguin-watching together?

Sep 19, 1:05 AMSep 26, 3:59 AM

22.03%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will there be a Yu Gi Oh collaboration with Fortnite before the end of 2027?

Mar 18, 2:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.42%chance

372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

114

Will janus/repligate, Rona Wang, Razib Khan, Ava Huang, Stephen Hsu, and Ben Yu ALL traverse the Oregon Trail by 2090?

Dec 2, 1:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 12, 2025
Aug 12, 2025
US Domestic Policy
Arizona
Politics
Peoria Sushi Owner Kelly Yu Faces Deportation Amid Bipartisan Support; Houston Trump-Themed Burger Owner Also Targeted for Visa Violations
Authors
7
2 days ago

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