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Yu News

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

93%chance

9128720219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18636

8827

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

250184169

OptionProbability

Sam Raskin

Hong Wang

Yu Deng

Jacob Tsimerman

Jack Thorne

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Other

Tom Hutchcroft

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

John Pardon

Song Sun

Tatenda Kubalalika

Will Sawin

Elia Bruè

Aleksandr Logunov

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Yibo Gao

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Frederick Manners

Yuansi Chen

Javier Fresan

yunqing tang

Noé Cruchet

Vincent Tassion

24

24

23

12

8

4

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

52.47%chance

21149369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2614

1027

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

Will official investigations or leaked evidence confirm that Yu Menglong's death was murder by June 30, 2026

Dec 14, 7:55 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

15.64%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

69

Will Jose Ricon, Ben Yu, Claire Wang, Sigil Wen, ishaan chugh, Asher, and Euan Ong all go penguin-watching together?

Sep 19, 1:05 AMSep 26, 3:59 AM

22.03%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will there be a Yu Gi Oh collaboration with Fortnite before the end of 2027?

Mar 18, 2:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.42%chance

372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

114

Will Jose Luis Ricon, Will DePue, Anson Yu, Alexey Guzey,Claire Wang, & Isaak Freeman all DnD campaign together by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:18 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.17%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will janus/repligate, Rona Wang, Razib Khan, Ava Huang, Stephen Hsu, and Ben Yu ALL traverse the Oregon Trail by 2090?

Dec 2, 1:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

WILL ANSON YU MAKE CANADA GREAT AGAIN?

Oct 1, 2:12 PM

10

Will Anson Yu or Hudzah (https://www.hudzah.com/) become PLAYABLE characters in Halflife 3?

Aug 15, 5:26 PM

00

Will Jose Luis Ricon and Anson Yu both WIN a hackathon together?

Dec 11, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

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