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Prediction markets for Zachary

Will the scientific consensus in 2030 be that Lantern Bioworks' Lumina Probiotic is effective at reducing cavities?

Apr 10, 2:03 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

28.91%chance

363686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

565

Which of the following will be sold off before parent company reaches 10T?

Jan 17, 8:45 PMFeb 25, 5:59 AM

473191

OptionProbability

Starlink

Microsoft Teams

Google ads

Tesla Robotics (embodied ai)

AWS

Reality labs

Apple App store

Omniverse

64

44

42

41

34

26

25

23

Will any of the following ski resorts close before 2040: Solitude, Brighton, Alta, Snowbird, Park City, and Deer Valley

May 21, 12:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.33%chance

52898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

385

26

Will Amazon have more robots than FTE humans before 2026?

Apr 22, 5:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.28%chance

162816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2618

273

China's battery energy output exceeds 50% of its peak historical coal energy output in any month until December 2025

Dec 10, 3:20 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

34.96%chance

3555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1364

733

For which year will Space X revenue be bigger than NASA budget?

Dec 12, 2:10 PMApr 30, 1:33 PM

14535

OptionProbability

2025

2027 or later

2026

2024

46

39

15

1

Who will be the successor to Elon Musk at Tesla?

Jan 16, 12:46 AMApr 1, 10:59 AM

8234

OptionProbability

Other

Tom Zhu

Me!

Drew Baglino

Vaibhav Taneja

JB Straubel

Zachary Kirkhorn

Robyn Denholm

Omead Afshar

Ashok Elluswamy

33

14

9

8

7

6

6

6

6

6

Will a custom podcast-creator be on the market by 2028? (details below)

Apr 11, 12:50 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

61.62%chance

7227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

267

180

Will the first manned mission to mars have a Chinese national on board?

Dec 12, 2:32 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

23.69%chance

7203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

252

96

Will Sneako experience twink death before 09/22/2033

Sep 22, 10:40 PMSep 17, 5:59 AM

84.85%chance

5143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

265

80

How many chief financial officers will Tesla have by 2025 year end?

Aug 9, 3:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

394

OptionProbability

2

1

3

4

5 or more

41

29

12

12

6

Will my wife, Emily, decide to do 2 or more new major remodeling projects by the end of 2034?

Mar 3, 8:08 PMMar 11, 6:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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