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People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
OptionProbability
Trump will be the POTUS
FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025
At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher
1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned
Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities
Hollow Knight Silk song released
LEMMiNO releases a new video
Elon removed as doge head
Pope dies
Dodgers win World Series
Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court
Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known
Famous global brand goes through a rebranding
GPT 5 releases
T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions
Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)
This whole market gets more than 300 traders
Russia retains de facto control over Crimea
Avatar: Fire and Ash released
King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025
FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025
Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025
Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%
There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025
In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved
Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection
Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations
MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair
At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office
Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)
Ali Khamenei assassisnated
Ali Khamenei dies a natural death
Ukraine internal coup attempt
Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)
At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA
Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt
In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence
Chuck Schumer resigns
Californian independence gains enough signatures
Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives
Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025
Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025
Harry and Meghan divorce
Early general elections in Pakistan
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%
US-China war
Biden gets hospitalised
EF3+ Tornado Impacts Florida
United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth
Kate and William divorce
Sam Altman gets fired again
At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%
One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model
Zelensky Assassinated
Article 5 of NATO invoked
Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination
Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19
Congress repeals any tariff
In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth
A country leaves NATO
NATO at war with Russia
A nuclear bomb explodes
FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it
Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025
United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth
Trump assassinated
2025 hotter then 2024
USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement
Putin assassinated
OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released
China annexes Taiwan
Filibuster abolished
Putin dies
2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"
Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds
Mike Johnson is not Speaker
Biden dies
Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series
Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025
US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025
Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025
The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release
LK99 replicates at last
Greenland Joins USA
End of the world by celery
Ukraine joins NATO
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30
A US state secedes from the union
51st US State
A country leaves the EU
Phillies win the World Series
Peter Turkson elected Pope
GTA 6 releases
After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved
Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero
2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US
Harris will be the POTUS
Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025
Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025
Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31
Francis is always Pope
New pope takes name "Francis"
First papal conclave >= 10 ballots
First conclave elects Pope on first ballot
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
1640
605
OptionProbability
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Bake it with your best friend.
Bake for 5 more minutes
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Improve the bread
Bake for 15 more minutes
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Autolyse 20 minutes
Make the bread taste good
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Do a second rise
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Add slurs to it
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Watch the video
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Make banana bread
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Add garlic
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Increase water by 50 g
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Brush on an egg wash
Make the bread great again
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Add a tablespoon of sugar
it needs more salt
Bake one more minute
Strawberry jelly filling
Add caffeine to the bread
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Bake vegimite into it.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Use lemonade instead of water.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Half yeast
Replace salt with sugar
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Quadruple salt
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Bake vodka into it
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Add a pinch of sugar
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
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OptionProbability
2030+ or never
2029
2027
2028
2026
2025
2024
63
10
9
8
7
3
1
OptionProbability
Death Stranding 2 releases
Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way
someone reaches 5 million mana profit on manifold
Bitcoin reaches $100K
nvidia more valuable than microsoft and apple
Jimmy Carter dies
Strutheo reaches the top of the creator leaderboard
Someone with the last name 'Trump' wins a US presidential election
Manifest 2025 ends
GTA 6 is released
windows 12 released by microsoft
Volodymyr Zelenskyy stops being President of Ukraine
Joe Biden dies
king charles no longer king of uk
Taika Waititi 's star wars movie releases first trailer
Star Citizen OR Hytale OR YandareSimulator releases fully to the public
Official sub 2:00 marathon
chat gpt 6 released
Vladimir Putin dies
Lex Fridman interviews Putin
Human steps foot on the moon again
Moldova joins NATO
Kingdom Hearts 4 released
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users at least one time
Credible reports of AGI
Woman becomes President of the United States
Ukraine's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index for all countries improves to 80th or better (chart is at the bottom of this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine)
One Piece manga final chapter and series ends
Tom Scott's THIS VIDEO HAS X VIEWS reaches 100M
George R R Martin releases ASOIAF The Winds of Winter (his next Game of Thrones Book )
Sam Bankman-Fried is released from prison
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce end their relationship by any means
China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan
Someone reaches a 2900 FIDE rating in Chess
Team Fortress 3 announced or revealed (not an unconfirmed leak)
The United States leaves NATO
assange extradited to usa
A market about room temperature semiconductors with at least 200 traders resolves in favor of the 'believers' (and stays resolved for a week)
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31
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7
6
OptionProbability
Tom Holland (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Anthony Mackie (Sam Wilson / Captain America)
Pedro Pascal (Reed Richards / Mister Fantastic)
Benedict Cumberbatch (Dr. Stephen Strange)
Joseph Quinn (Johnny Storm / Human Torch)
Samuel L. Jackson (Nick Fury)
Robert Downey, Jr. (Victor von Doom / Doctor Doom, Tony Stark / Iron Man)
Vanessa Kirby (Sue Storm / Invisible Woman)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (Ben Grimm / The Thing)
Paul Rudd (Scott Lang / Ant-Man)
Chris Hemsworth (Thor)
Charlie Cox (Matt Murdock / Daredevil)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Valentina Allegra de Fontaine)
Pom Klementieff (Mantis)
Sebastian Stan (Bucky Barnes / Winter Soldier / White Wolf)
Simu Liu (Shang-Chi)
Danny Ramirez (Joaquin Torres / Falcon)
Iman Vellani (Kamala Khan / Ms. Marvel)
Ryan Reynolds (Wade Wilson / Deadpool)
Mark Ruffalo (Bruce Banner / Hulk)
Dominique Thorne (Riri Williams / Ironheart)
Florence Pugh (Yelena Belova / Black Widow)
Benedict Wong (Wong)
Chris Pratt (Peter Quill / Star-Lord)
Vin Diesel (Groot)
Jeremy Renner (Clint Barton / Hawkeye)
Wyatt Russell (John Walker / U.S. Agent)
Brie Larson (Carol Danvers / Captain Marvel)
Hannah John-Kamen (Ava Starr / Ghost)
Letitia Wright (Shuri / Black Panther)
Karen Gillan (Nebula)
Tatiana Maslany (Jennifer Walters / She-Hulk)
David Harbour (Alexei Shostakov / Red Guardian)
Hailee Steinfeld (Kate Bishop / Hawkeye)
Teyonah Parris (Monica Rambeau)
Xochitl Gomez (America Chavez)
Kathryn Newton (Cassie Lang)
Bradley Cooper (Rocket Raccoon)
Will Poulter (Adam Warlock)
Tenoch Huerta Mejía (Namor)
Don Cheadle (James "Rhodey" Rhodes / War Machine)
Tessa Thompson (Valkyrie)
Winston Duke (M'Baku)
Elizabeth Olsen (Wanda Maximoff / Scarlet Witch)
Paul Bettany (Vision)
Kathryn Hahn (Agatha Harkness)
Danai Gurira (Okoye)
Oscar Isaac (Marc Spector / Moon Knight, Steven Grant / Mr. Knight, Jake Lockley)
Hayley Atwell (Peggy Carter / Captain Carter)
Tom Hiddleston (Loki)
Mahershala Ali (Blade)
Hugh Jackman (James "Logan" Howlett / Wolverine)
Sean Gunn (Kraglin)
Chris Evans (Steve Rogers / Captain America)
Alaqua Cox (Maya Lopez / Echo)
Lupita Nyong'o (Nakia)
Wil Deusner (Skaar)
Gemma Chan (Sersi)
Kumail Nanjiani (Kingo)
Lia McHugh (Sprite)
Brian Tyree Henry (Phastos)
Barry Keoghan (Druig)
Harry Styles (Eros / Starfox)
Patton Oswalt (Pip the Troll)
Kit Harington (Dane Whitman)
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Simon Williams / Wonder Man)
Ralph Ineson (Galactus)
Evangeline Lilly (Hope van Dyne / Wasp)
Seth Green (Howard the Duck)
Tobey Maguire (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Zoe Saldaña (Gamora)
Dave Bautista (Drax)
Angelina Jolie (Thena)
Gael García Bernal (Jack Russell / Werewolf by Night)
Scarlett Johansson (Natasha Romanoff / Black Widow)
Andrew Garfield (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Lauren Ridloff (Makkari)
May Calamawy (Layla El-Faouly / Scarlet Scarab)
Emilia Clarke (G'iah)
Jeffrey Wright (The Watcher)
Harrison Ford (Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross)
Olga Kurylenko (Antonia Dreykov / Taskmaster)
Brett Goldstein (Hercules)
Don Lee (Gilgamesh)
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OptionProbability
2026 Q1 (Winter)
2025 Q3 (Summer)
2025 Q4 (Fall)
2026 Q2 (Spring)
2026 Q3 (Summer)
2026 Q4 (Fall)
2027 Q1 (Winter)
2027 Q2 (Spring)
2027 Q3 (Summer)
2027 Q4 (Fall)
Other
92
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
AI winter
Benign superintelligence
Other
Effective international moratorium
33
28
23
17
OptionProbability
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
noam chomsky alive until end of month
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
NASDAQ hits an all time high
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
trump leaves usa at least once
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
New Half-Life game announced
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced
another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
another indictment or charges announced against trump
luffy finds the one piece
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
destiny goes on joe rogan
israel hamas ceasefire
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
ukraine russia ceasefire
usa troops enter lebanon
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
usa troops enter syria
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
Hurricane landfalls in Florida
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
100F temperature in nyc at least one day
starship launch
dick cheney still alive at end of month
Eliezer Yudkowsky is not alive for part of the month, but is alive on December 31.
silksong game releases
silksong game release date announced
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3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
OptionProbability
Daniel Negreanu
Niklas Astedt
Linus Loeliger
Isaac Haxton
Rainer Kempe
Ben Yu
Sean Winter
Phil Ivey
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
OptionProbability
Other
Scarcity of Resources
Other
BasedBeffJezos becomes dictator of the Earth's singleton
Global Thermonuclear War
Climate Disaster
Pandemic Disease
Solar Flare
Nuclear Accident
Asteroid Impact Winter
Global Dictatorship
Alien Invasion
67
56
50
50
44
44
44
44
44
44
34
34
OptionProbability
Bio-Risk
other
Drones
Paperclipped
"AI gets the nuclear codes"
Disruption of global food supply chain
AI doomer data center airstrike starts WW3 + nuclear winter
AI hacking takes down global communications networks
Chemical attack
Machines boil oceans as heatsink for compute
33
28
10
6
4
4
4
4
3
3