OptionVotes
YES
NO
1835
535
OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Make banana bread
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Add garlic
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
put ketchup and cheese on it
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Add slurs to it
Brush on an egg wash
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Make the bread taste good
Bake for 15 more minutes
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Taste the bread
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Make the bread great again
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Increase water by 50 g
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Replace salt with sugar
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Strawberry jelly filling
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Add caffeine to the bread
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
it needs more salt
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Use lemonade instead of water.
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
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100
89
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78
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69
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62
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62
59
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53
51
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50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
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8
8
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6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Taylor Swift dies
The Winds of Winter (Game of Thrones 6th Novel) is Published
Puerto Rico becomes a (US) State
Taylor Swift dates somebody who does not identify as a man
A woman is president of the United States
Taylor Swift goes to Space
China full-scale invades Taiwan
Taylor Swift performs at the Super Bowl
Reputation (TV) is released
A United States presidential candidate endorsed by Taylor Swift gets elected
Taylor Swift releases her "Taylor Swift" album rerecord
Nate Silver wins a WSOP Bracelet
Travis Kelce wins a fourth Super Bowl
The Buffalo Bills beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs
A Non-QB wins the NFL MVP award
King Charles III ceases to be the King of the UK (or England, if the UK is broken up)
Songs on Midnights reach 20 Billion total streams
Taylor Swift does not have a live performance for a period of at least 2 years
Destiny is unbanned from Twitch
Obergefell is effectively overturned by the Supreme Court
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II gets remarried
GameStop files for Bankruptcy
The UN has a new member state
There is an official Russia Ukraine peace treaty
Any United States current or former president dies (after Jimmy Carter)
Nine months prior to the birth of Taylor Swift’s first child
Cannabis is Federally Legalized
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II appears on "The Joe Rogan Experience"
The United States reports a Recession
A Supreme Court justice dies or announces retirement
Travis Kelce Retires From the NFL
Songs on The Tortured Poets Department reach 10 Billion total streams
The Carolina Panthers clinch a playoff berth
A major Philadelphia sports team (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB) wins a championship
Jimmy Carter Dies
The Same Party Controls the U.S. House, Senate and Presidency
Taylor Swift releases 2 new (non-rerecord) albums
Taylor Swift gets engaged
Taylor Swift attends a Super Bowl won by the Kansas City Chiefs
Pope Francis ceases to be Pope
Bitcoin goes below $100k
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74
51
19
12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
2030+ or never
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
64
11
9
8
5
2
1
OptionProbability
Tom Holland (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Anthony Mackie (Sam Wilson / Captain America)
Robert Downey, Jr. (Victor von Doom / Doctor Doom, Tony Stark / Iron Man)
Pedro Pascal (Reed Richards / Mister Fantastic)
Benedict Cumberbatch (Dr. Stephen Strange)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (Ben Grimm / The Thing)
Joseph Quinn (Johnny Storm / Human Torch)
Samuel L. Jackson (Nick Fury)
Sebastian Stan (Bucky Barnes / Winter Soldier / White Wolf)
Vanessa Kirby (Sue Storm / Invisible Woman)
Simu Liu (Shang-Chi)
Paul Rudd (Scott Lang / Ant-Man)
Chris Hemsworth (Thor)
Charlie Cox (Matt Murdock / Daredevil)
Hannah John-Kamen (Ava Starr / Ghost)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Valentina Allegra de Fontaine)
Pom Klementieff (Mantis)
David Harbour (Alexei Shostakov / Red Guardian)
Danny Ramirez (Joaquin Torres / Falcon)
Iman Vellani (Kamala Khan / Ms. Marvel)
Mark Ruffalo (Bruce Banner / Hulk)
Dominique Thorne (Riri Williams / Ironheart)
Florence Pugh (Yelena Belova / Black Widow)
Benedict Wong (Wong)
Chris Pratt (Peter Quill / Star-Lord)
Vin Diesel (Groot)
Ryan Reynolds (Wade Wilson / Deadpool)
Jeremy Renner (Clint Barton / Hawkeye)
Wyatt Russell (John Walker / U.S. Agent)
Brie Larson (Carol Danvers / Captain Marvel)
Letitia Wright (Shuri / Black Panther)
Karen Gillan (Nebula)
Tatiana Maslany (Jennifer Walters / She-Hulk)
Chris Evans (Steve Rogers / Captain America)
Hailee Steinfeld (Kate Bishop / Hawkeye)
Teyonah Parris (Monica Rambeau)
Xochitl Gomez (America Chavez)
Hayley Atwell (Peggy Carter / Captain Carter)
Kathryn Newton (Cassie Lang)
Bradley Cooper (Rocket Raccoon)
Will Poulter (Adam Warlock)
Tenoch Huerta Mejía (Namor)
Don Cheadle (James "Rhodey" Rhodes / War Machine)
Tessa Thompson (Valkyrie)
Winston Duke (M'Baku)
Elizabeth Olsen (Wanda Maximoff / Scarlet Witch)
Paul Bettany (Vision)
Kathryn Hahn (Agatha Harkness)
Danai Gurira (Okoye)
Oscar Isaac (Marc Spector / Moon Knight, Steven Grant / Mr. Knight, Jake Lockley)
Hugh Jackman (James "Logan" Howlett / Wolverine)
Tom Hiddleston (Loki)
Mahershala Ali (Blade)
Sean Gunn (Kraglin)
Alaqua Cox (Maya Lopez / Echo)
Lupita Nyong'o (Nakia)
Wil Deusner (Skaar)
Gemma Chan (Sersi)
Kumail Nanjiani (Kingo)
Lia McHugh (Sprite)
Brian Tyree Henry (Phastos)
Barry Keoghan (Druig)
Harry Styles (Eros / Starfox)
Patton Oswalt (Pip the Troll)
Kit Harington (Dane Whitman)
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Simon Williams / Wonder Man)
Evangeline Lilly (Hope van Dyne / Wasp)
Seth Green (Howard the Duck)
Zoe Saldaña (Gamora)
Dave Bautista (Drax)
Angelina Jolie (Thena)
Gael García Bernal (Jack Russell / Werewolf by Night)
Tobey Maguire (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Scarlett Johansson (Natasha Romanoff / Black Widow)
Andrew Garfield (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Lauren Ridloff (Makkari)
Emilia Clarke (G'iah)
Ralph Ineson (Galactus)
Jeffrey Wright (The Watcher)
May Calamawy (Layla El-Faouly / Scarlet Scarab)
Harrison Ford (Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross)
Brett Goldstein (Hercules)
Don Lee (Gilgamesh)
Olga Kurylenko (Antonia Dreykov / Taskmaster)
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55
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50
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50
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50
50
48
46
41
41
41
41
37
34
34
34
34
34
32
29
23
17
16
14
OptionProbability
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
noam chomsky alive until end of month
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
Israeli startup acquired at a price higher than $1b
dick cheney still alive at end of month
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
trump leaves usa at least once
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
NASDAQ hits an all time high
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
usa troops enter syria
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
American airstrike or drone strike or missile strike on Mexico
usa troops enter lebanon
New nominal US$ market capitalization record for the largest company in the history of the world
ukraine russia ceasefire
starship launch
Bitcoin hits 100K
New Half-Life game announced
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
another indictment or charges announced against trump
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
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91
86
78
76
65
50
48
40
38
38
37
36
34
33
31
29
24
24
22
20
17
17
14
10
10
9
9
6
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
2
OptionProbability
10/31 Halloween
12/25 Christmas
Thanksgiving
Easter
11/03 U.S. Election Day
06/** Pride Month
Fall equinox (or fall in general)
Winter Solstice (or winter in general)
12/31 New Year's Eve
03/14 Pi Day
Any Manifest
04/01 April Fools Day
Cortina Winter Olympics
Saint Patrick's Day
The Oscars
05/27 Memorial Day
07/04 U.S. Independence Day
05/04 Star Wars Day
03/08 International Women's Day
Juneteenth
Spring equinox (or spring in general)
04/22 Earth Day
Mother's Day
Father's Day
Labor Day
11/11 Veterans Day/Armistice Day
05/05 Cinco de Mayo
Summer Solstice (or summer in general)
82
81
66
50
50
47
37
37
32
31
30
28
26
21
20
20
20
18
15
15
12
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
OptionProbability
AI winter
Benign superintelligence
Other
Effective international moratorium
33
28
23
17
OptionProbability
Daniel Negreanu
Niklas Astedt
Linus Loeliger
Isaac Haxton
Rainer Kempe
Ben Yu
Sean Winter
Phil Ivey
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
OptionProbability
Other
Pandemic Disease
Solar Flare
Scarcity of Resources
Other
BasedBeffJezos becomes dictator of the Earth's singleton
Global Thermonuclear War
Climate Disaster
Nuclear Accident
Asteroid Impact Winter
Global Dictatorship
Alien Invasion
67
56
56
56
50
50
44
44
44
44
34
34
OptionProbability
Australia Win
Whitewash
Series is played in Aussie Winter
Darwin gets a Test
Series is cancelled
Series is postponed to 2027
Drawn Series
79
66
62
50
50
50
4
OptionProbability
Bio-Risk
other
Drones
Paperclipped
"AI gets the nuclear codes"
Disruption of global food supply chain
AI doomer data center airstrike starts WW3 + nuclear winter
AI hacking takes down global communications networks
Chemical attack
Machines boil oceans as heatsink for compute
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28
10
6
4
4
4
4
3
3
