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OptionVotes
YES
NO
2117
458
OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Increase water by 50 g
it needs more salt
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Use Iodized salt
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
put ketchup and cheese on it
Add garlic
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Add slurs to it
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Make the bread taste good
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Use lemonade instead of water.
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Taste the bread
put oats on top of the dough just before baking, press them in so they don't fall off
Buy chemical bread improvers
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Add cheese inside it and also sausage
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Add an amount of non-smoked paprika equal to the current salt content
Strawberry jelly filling
Use a convection oven/setting
Make banana bread
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Eat it slowly and focus on the taste
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Keep the bread in a high quality expensive beeswax coated textile bag
Make the bread great again
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Bake for 15 more minutes
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Butter resolved yes twice. Double butter again.
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Follow a recipe online
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Add at least 20% chic pea flour or some other type of high protein flour
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Knead it only 10 times, keep it round like this number
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Replace salt with sugar
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Slowly add sawdust to the bread until your friends start to notice.
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Soak the finished product in vinegar for 24 hours
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add caffeine to the bread
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Brush on an egg wash
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OptionProbability
04/01 April Fools Day
12/25 Christmas
10/31 Halloween
Thanksgiving
11/03 U.S. Election Day
06/** Pride Month
Fall equinox (or fall in general)
Winter Solstice (or winter in general)
Any Manifest
12/31 New Year's Eve
05/27 Memorial Day
07/04 U.S. Independence Day
Juneteenth
Spring equinox (or spring in general)
Mother's Day
Father's Day
Labor Day
11/11 Veterans Day/Armistice Day
Summer Solstice (or summer in general)
04/22 Earth Day
05/04 Star Wars Day
05/05 Cinco de Mayo
03/08 International Women's Day
The Oscars
03/14 Pi Day
Saint Patrick's Day
Easter
Cortina Winter Olympics
100
85
78
63
55
42
41
41
37
32
20
20
15
12
10
10
10
10
9
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
2030+ or never
2026
2029
2028
2027
2025
2024
63
10
9
8
7
2
1
OptionProbability
Death Stranding 2 releases
Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way
someone reaches 5 million mana profit on manifold
Bitcoin reaches $100K
nvidia more valuable than microsoft and apple
Jimmy Carter dies
Strutheo reaches the top of the creator leaderboard
Someone with the last name 'Trump' wins a US presidential election
Manifest 2025 ends
GTA 6 is released
Official sub 2:00 marathon
windows 12 released by microsoft
Volodymyr Zelenskyy stops being President of Ukraine
king charles no longer king of uk
Taika Waititi 's star wars movie releases first trailer
Joe Biden dies
Star Citizen OR Hytale OR YandareSimulator releases fully to the public
chat gpt 6 released
Human steps foot on the moon again
Vladimir Putin dies
Lex Fridman interviews Putin
Moldova joins NATO
Kingdom Hearts 4 released
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users at least one time
Credible reports of AGI
Woman becomes President of the United States
Ukraine's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index for all countries improves to 80th or better (chart is at the bottom of this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine)
One Piece manga final chapter and series ends
Tom Scott's THIS VIDEO HAS X VIEWS reaches 100M
George R R Martin releases ASOIAF The Winds of Winter (his next Game of Thrones Book )
Sam Bankman-Fried is released from prison
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce end their relationship by any means
China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan
Someone reaches a 2900 FIDE rating in Chess
The United States leaves NATO
Team Fortress 3 announced or revealed (not an unconfirmed leak)
assange extradited to usa
A market about room temperature semiconductors with at least 200 traders resolves in favor of the 'believers' (and stays resolved for a week)
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6
OptionProbability
Robert Downey, Jr. (Victor von Doom / Doctor Doom, Tony Stark / Iron Man)
Tom Holland (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Anthony Mackie (Sam Wilson / Captain America)
Pedro Pascal (Reed Richards / Mister Fantastic)
Benedict Cumberbatch (Dr. Stephen Strange)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (Ben Grimm / The Thing)
Joseph Quinn (Johnny Storm / Human Torch)
Samuel L. Jackson (Nick Fury)
Sebastian Stan (Bucky Barnes / Winter Soldier / White Wolf)
Vanessa Kirby (Sue Storm / Invisible Woman)
Simu Liu (Shang-Chi)
Paul Rudd (Scott Lang / Ant-Man)
Charlie Cox (Matt Murdock / Daredevil)
Hannah John-Kamen (Ava Starr / Ghost)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Valentina Allegra de Fontaine)
Pom Klementieff (Mantis)
David Harbour (Alexei Shostakov / Red Guardian)
Danny Ramirez (Joaquin Torres / Falcon)
Chris Hemsworth (Thor)
Iman Vellani (Kamala Khan / Ms. Marvel)
Mark Ruffalo (Bruce Banner / Hulk)
Dominique Thorne (Riri Williams / Ironheart)
Florence Pugh (Yelena Belova / Black Widow)
Benedict Wong (Wong)
Chris Pratt (Peter Quill / Star-Lord)
Vin Diesel (Groot)
Ryan Reynolds (Wade Wilson / Deadpool)
Jeremy Renner (Clint Barton / Hawkeye)
Wyatt Russell (John Walker / U.S. Agent)
Brie Larson (Carol Danvers / Captain Marvel)
Letitia Wright (Shuri / Black Panther)
Karen Gillan (Nebula)
Tatiana Maslany (Jennifer Walters / She-Hulk)
Hailee Steinfeld (Kate Bishop / Hawkeye)
Teyonah Parris (Monica Rambeau)
Xochitl Gomez (America Chavez)
Hayley Atwell (Peggy Carter / Captain Carter)
Kathryn Newton (Cassie Lang)
Bradley Cooper (Rocket Raccoon)
Will Poulter (Adam Warlock)
Tenoch Huerta Mejía (Namor)
Don Cheadle (James "Rhodey" Rhodes / War Machine)
Tessa Thompson (Valkyrie)
Winston Duke (M'Baku)
Elizabeth Olsen (Wanda Maximoff / Scarlet Witch)
Paul Bettany (Vision)
Chris Evans (Steve Rogers / Captain America)
Kathryn Hahn (Agatha Harkness)
Danai Gurira (Okoye)
Oscar Isaac (Marc Spector / Moon Knight, Steven Grant / Mr. Knight, Jake Lockley)
Hugh Jackman (James "Logan" Howlett / Wolverine)
Tom Hiddleston (Loki)
Mahershala Ali (Blade)
Sean Gunn (Kraglin)
Alaqua Cox (Maya Lopez / Echo)
Lupita Nyong'o (Nakia)
Wil Deusner (Skaar)
Gemma Chan (Sersi)
Kumail Nanjiani (Kingo)
Lia McHugh (Sprite)
Brian Tyree Henry (Phastos)
Barry Keoghan (Druig)
Harry Styles (Eros / Starfox)
Patton Oswalt (Pip the Troll)
Kit Harington (Dane Whitman)
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Simon Williams / Wonder Man)
Evangeline Lilly (Hope van Dyne / Wasp)
Seth Green (Howard the Duck)
Zoe Saldaña (Gamora)
Dave Bautista (Drax)
Angelina Jolie (Thena)
Gael García Bernal (Jack Russell / Werewolf by Night)
Scarlett Johansson (Natasha Romanoff / Black Widow)
Andrew Garfield (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Lauren Ridloff (Makkari)
Emilia Clarke (G'iah)
Ralph Ineson (Galactus)
May Calamawy (Layla El-Faouly / Scarlet Scarab)
Jeffrey Wright (The Watcher)
Tobey Maguire (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)
Harrison Ford (Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross)
Brett Goldstein (Hercules)
Don Lee (Gilgamesh)
Olga Kurylenko (Antonia Dreykov / Taskmaster)
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17
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14
OptionProbability
AI winter
Benign superintelligence
Other
Effective international moratorium
33
28
22
17
OptionProbability
Linus Loeliger
Isaac Haxton
Daniel Negreanu
Niklas Astedt
Ben Yu
Rainer Kempe
Sean Winter
Phil Ivey
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13
11
9
4
3
2
2
OptionProbability
Before 2035
Before 2030
Before 2027
Before 2028
Before 2029
Before the release of "The Winds of Winter"
Within the lifetime of George R.R. Martin
Before 2026
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OptionProbability
Other
Pandemic Disease
Scarcity of Resources
Solar Flare
Other
BasedBeffJezos becomes dictator of the Earth's singleton
Global Thermonuclear War
Nuclear Accident
Asteroid Impact Winter
Climate Disaster
Global Dictatorship
Alien Invasion
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56
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50
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41
34
34
OptionProbability
Australia Win
Whitewash
Series is played in Aussie Winter
Darwin gets a Test
Series is cancelled
Series is postponed to 2027
Drawn Series
79
66
62
50
50
50
4
OptionProbability
Bio-Risk
other
Drones
Paperclipped
"AI gets the nuclear codes"
Disruption of global food supply chain
AI doomer data center airstrike starts WW3 + nuclear winter
AI hacking takes down global communications networks
Chemical attack
Machines boil oceans as heatsink for compute
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28
10
6
4
4
4
4
3
3