Could this mess turn into a financial crisis? If I was a betting man, my money would be on the unwind of the treasury basis trade by hedge funds, leading to large banks cutting credit lines to REITs and CRE exposure. My post today (link in reply) https://t.co/N5RY06NHUK
Banche d’affari, fondi e consulenti: perché ora la finanza americana rischia di perdere il primato mondiale https://t.co/X7CiW0R7W4
In SiliconContinent today I review three key risks for a financial crisis: - Hugely leveraged US Treasury Basis trade: Kasyap et al. (2025) - Smaller Banks CRE: Jiang et al. (2024) - Larger banks' link with shadow banks/REITs: Acharya et al. (2024) https://t.co/k5jQ6rWJXM










Hedge funds sold global stocks in March 2025 at the fastest pace in 12 years, according to data from Goldman Sachs. This large-scale equity sell-off exceeded the levels seen during the 2022 bear market and the 2020 market crash. The selling spree was reportedly driven by hedge funds' efforts to de-risk amid heightened market volatility and concerns over potential financial instability. European equities experienced the largest monthly net selling in a decade, partly attributed to caution ahead of tariff announcements. The rapid liquidation by hedge funds has raised concerns about broader financial market vulnerabilities, including risks tied to leveraged trades in U.S. Treasury markets and commercial real estate exposure, as highlighted in recent research papers.