JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon told audiences in Europe that he now assigns a 40%–50% probability to the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates, far above market pricing. Tariffs, restrictive migration policies and the country’s large budget deficit are all inflationary, he said, adding that the impact of higher levies would be staggered rather than immediate. Dimon warned that investors risk complacency, arguing that unreliable real-time data mask underlying economic pressures and that internal U.S. dysfunction poses a bigger danger than foreign competition. He also called for renewed investment in infrastructure and for policymakers to address the nation’s debt trajectory. Despite the cautious macro outlook, the bank plans to expand its European footprint. After meeting Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome, Dimon said JPMorgan will commit additional capital to Italy, and he confirmed to Handelsblatt that further investments are planned in Germany. Specific sums were not disclosed. Dimon used a separate appearance in Dublin to urge structural reforms in the European Union, stating that the bloc’s output has slipped from about 90% of U.S. GDP to 65% in little more than a decade. Europe is “losing” competitiveness to the United States and China, he said, and must accelerate capital-markets integration and innovation to close the gap.