Moody’s Warns U.S. Tariff Threat Could Dent India’s Growth and Oil Supply

India’s economy faces twin risks if New Delhi continues to import Russian crude and triggers a 50% U.S. tariff on its exports, Moody’s Ratings said in a note. The rating agency estimates the surcharge could shave 0.3 percentage point off India’s projected 6.3% growth for fiscal 2025-26, primarily through weaker merchandise exports. At the same time, Moody’s warned that curtailing Russian oil purchases to avoid the penalty would present logistical and cost challenges. Securing alternative crude in sufficient volumes and on time could prove difficult, exposing the country to higher energy prices and potential supply disruptions. Beyond the immediate tariff threat from Washington, Moody’s highlighted a widening gap between India’s trade levies and those of other Asia-Pacific economies. A sharper divergence could erode the nation’s recent success in attracting foreign investment, the agency said.