Most Economists Expect BOJ Rate Hike to 0.75% by Year-End

A majority of economists now expect the Bank of Japan to raise its short-term policy rate to at least 0.75% before the end of 2025, according to an August survey. Sixty-three percent of the 71 respondents forecast a hike by December, up from 54% in the previous poll, while 92% anticipate the central bank will leave the benchmark rate at 0.50% at its next meeting in September. The survey also indicates that 70% of economists believe softer U.S. employment figures will not deter Governor Kazuo Ueda from tightening policy later in the year. Separately, 22 of 29 economists endorsed the recently agreed 15% reciprocal tariff pact between Washington and Tokyo, although 21 of 31 warned that July’s upper-house election outcome could increase political pressure for further fiscal expansion in Japan.