Warming Seas Halve Uni Catch, Sending Japan Rice Bowls to ¥18,000

A prolonged marine heatwave is squeezing Japan’s seafood market, with water temperatures around the archipelago about 5 °C higher than historical norms, according to the Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency. The warming has cut the sea urchin haul in northern waters by roughly half compared with last year, disrupting supplies of the prized bafun uni harvested off Hokkaido’s Rishiri Island. Scarcity has driven retail prices to levels once unthinkable. Restaurants on Rishiri now charge 15,000–18,000 yen ($100–$120) for a 100-gram sea-urchin rice bowl—about double the price several years ago—while the top wholesale quote has surged to 90,000 yen for 10 kilograms, more than twice the level in 2023, according to the local fisheries cooperative. Although fish and seafood account for less than 10% of Japan’s consumer basket, the jump in uni prices underscores broader inflation pressures. Nationwide food prices rose 7.6% year-on-year in July, pushing the average household’s food share of spending to nearly 30%, a 43-year peak. The Bank of Japan has flagged climate-linked supply shocks as a growing risk to its inflation outlook. Fisheries researchers warn that continued warming could further depress catches of cold-water species such as salmon, squid and saury, whose volumes have already fallen sharply over the past two decades. Industry officials and economists say the trend complicates Tokyo’s goal of lifting the nation’s food self-sufficiency ratio to 69% by 2030.