The Bank of Japan says they are prepared for further interest rate hikes if the economy and prices grow as expected. Are they read like the last time they did this? Circus.
At the height of the 2008 crisis, the Yen rose 40% in real effective terms. This rise was entirely due to a BoJ policy error, with the BoJ refusing to match aggressive easing everywhere else. The result: rate differentials moved massively in favor of the Yen, which overshot... https://t.co/tNyazWq2em
The BoJ is playing with fire. It is tightening while every other central bank is easing. The risk is that the Yen now overshoots on the strong side, which happened in 2008 when the BoJ did not match aggressive QE programs everywhere else. This is a big policy error in the making. https://t.co/YqQrFJ598e
The yen carry trade, a popular strategy among investors, faced significant turmoil in August 2024 as the Japanese yen surged. This surge was attributed to actions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which has been tightening monetary policy while other central banks continue to ease. The resulting squeeze led to notable changes in commercial trades of yen currency futures, with traders shifting from a balanced long and short position to a more aggressive stance. Estimates suggest that the overall size of FX carry trades was around ¥40 trillion (approximately $250 billion) before the disruption. The fallout from the yen's appreciation has affected various markets, including stocks, credit, and emerging currencies, raising concerns about potential policy errors by the BoJ reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, the yen had risen 40% due to similar policy missteps, and analysts are wary of a repeat scenario if the BoJ does not align its policies with global monetary conditions.