The traditional four-year Bitcoin price cycle, historically driven by the halving of block rewards every four years, is facing scrutiny amid evolving market dynamics. Analysts and crypto commentators are divided on whether the halving events still significantly influence Bitcoin's price or if broader factors like global liquidity and institutional adoption now play a more decisive role. Some experts argue that the halving mechanism's impact has diminished due to Bitcoin's low circulating supply and increased institutional participation, suggesting the four-year cycle may no longer dictate market trends. Others highlight Bitcoin's ongoing network growth, with new blocks added every 10 minutes and a steady issuance rate of 1.3%, which remains higher than Ethereum's post-Merge issuance of 0.13%. This debate reflects Bitcoin's maturation and changing market behavior as it transitions from a retail-driven asset to one influenced by large-scale investors and global liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin is 10x Ethereum’s issuance with 0.13% for ETH vs 1.3% for BTC since the Merge. ETH’s post-Merge issuance is near flat; BTC’s is printing more. Numbers, not vibes. https://t.co/aBMPuHQ5tf
Every 10 minutes, a new Bitcoin block is added. Every 4 years, the block reward is cut in half. Every cycle, more people join the network. Bitcoin is inevitable. 🟧
Is Bitcoin’s maturity showing in its diminishing returns? @Sina_21st looks back at past cycles to chart where price might head next. Full conversation on cycles, the quantile model, and Bitcoin exuberance in the 🧵below https://t.co/6lUuG3lcNq