J.P. Morgan has halved long-term growth expectations for the stablecoin market, predicting the sector will reach roughly $500 billion in market value by 2028. The U.S. bank called earlier trillion-dollar projections "far too optimistic," citing scant evidence that the dollar-pegged tokens are gaining traction for everyday payments. The brokerage estimates today’s stablecoin capitalization at about $250 billion and says only 6 percent of demand—around $15 billion—comes from payments. The bulk of activity remains tied to crypto trading, decentralised-finance applications and collateral. Rival forecasts remain more bullish: Standard Chartered sees the market hitting $2 trillion by 2028, while Bernstein projects supply could climb toward $4 trillion over the next decade. J.P. Morgan argues broader adoption faces hurdles including limited use cases and fragmented regulation, even as the U.S. Senate’s recently passed GENIUS Act seeks to clarify rules for the industry.