

The S&P 500 experienced a significant decline on the first trading day of September 2024, marking the 30th instance where the index started a month with a 2% drop. Historically, 69% of the time the S&P 500 has closed higher for the month following such a drop, with an average gain of 3.4%. However, past data also shows that September has seen some of the worst rest-of-month returns, notably in 1974 and 2002, with declines of 9.9% and 7.1% respectively. Year-to-date in 2024, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 0.24% on the first trading day of the month, but has typically seen a gain of 0.3% on the second day if the first day was negative. Similar drops were observed in May '20 and April '20.
YTD in 2024, SPX has on average fallen 0.24% on the first trading day of the month (4 gains & 5 losses)...over that period, when day 1 is negative, day 2 of the month has averaged a gain of 0.3%
This is the 30th time that the $SPX has started a month with a -2% day. This is how the rest of the month played out for the 29 previous events: 69% of the time the month closed higher, with avg gain 3.4%: https://t.co/4J6MSXm397
The past 13 times the first day of the month was down 2% or more saw the rest of the month higher. Of course, the two worst rest of month returns ever were in September (1974 down 9.9% and 2002 down 7.1%). So we pretty much have something for everyone here. https://t.co/KRk9KP0zsb