
The S&P 500 ($SPX) and related indices are experiencing heightened volatility as the market anticipates the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report. The implied volatility on options for the S&P 500 has surged, with a 1.1% move in either direction expected. Options expiring tomorrow have seen their implied volatility rise from 13 vol at the end of last week to 27 vol. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, has reached its highest level since August 7, standing at 22. Similar volatility is observed in ETFs tracking the Russell 2000 ($IWM) and Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ), with implied moves of 1.84% and 1.37%, respectively. Traders are increasingly hedging against potential market swings, with the put skew on the S&P 500 reaching new highs for 2024. This sentiment is echoed by Morgan Stanley traders, who expect significant market movements in response to the payroll data. The 30-day historical volatility (HV) for the S&P 500 is at levels last seen in December 2022, a period when the index rallied around 10%.
$VIX still fading from highs made earlier. Interesting the VIX futures curve also did not invert this week like in early August. But maybe more a function of October IV staying higher due to election https://t.co/MrhE7HXfWV
Back on Aug 1st we broke 5,500, and tagged 5,400 the same day. The VIX closed at 19, vs 22 today. This syncs w/ 1-month $SPX skew now higher vs 8/2, a signal that the market is more prepared for potential downside. Suggests a +50 VIX repeat isn't in play for Monday. https://t.co/SotU6FYcvs
0dte $SPX vol about 36 right now, pricing in about a 0.6% expected move for the rest of the day. Monday's options are slightly lower IV than they were into the jobs number. At 16iv Monday's options are pricing a 1.1% expected move (that includes the rest of today, but also… https://t.co/4ph5oC7D1t







