
Recent market data indicates a notable shift in investor sentiment and stock performance. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment fell to 35.4% for the week ending January 1, the lowest level since April 2024. This decline in bullish responses coincided with the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) experiencing its largest four-week drop since April 2024. Additionally, the number of stocks in the S&P 500 reaching a 10-day high increased to 104 on Friday, marking the highest count in over a month. Despite these indicators, the S&P 500 (SPX) has yet to show a convincing upward trend, although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is exhibiting a notable positive divergence. This divergence was last seen during the lows of October 2023, suggesting potential for a market reversal. Furthermore, the percentage of SPX members making four-week lows has been steadily climbing back to neutral since bottoming on December 20, 2024, which was the lowest level since September 2022. The Russell 2000 (RTY) also recorded extreme levels of four-week lows on December 18, 2024, similar to previous instances in September 2022 and March 2023, which preceded local market bottoms.




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The RTY $IWM 4-week lows hit an extreme level on 12/18 that mimics what we saw the last two occurrences (September ‘22 and March ‘23), with positive diverging lows vs. index price. Both previous times marked local bottoms in the index. $ES $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/CCYLqOZjAf
The percentage of #SPX members making 4-week lows bottomed on 12/20 and has been steadily climbing back to neutral despite the indexes making new lows. This is another positive divergence. That reading on 12/20 was the lowest since the September ‘22 lows. The SPX went on to… https://t.co/7m4n8Ml5xb