
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) recently reported a bearish sentiment of 60%, marking the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis when it peaked at 70%. This extreme sentiment is often associated with a potential market rebound, as historical data suggests that such bearish periods can lead to gains of approximately 13.6% within a year. The AAII survey indicates that bullish sentiment has fallen below 20% for the first time since September 2022, when it registered at 17.7%. Additionally, the Goldman Sachs (GS) US Equity Sentiment Indicator has reached its lowest point in nearly two years. Analysts note that current investor positioning is more bearish than expected given the decline in the S&P 500 index ($SPX). This trend may suggest that while market corrections are anticipated, the likelihood of a significant upward movement could also be on the horizon.





Always an interesting poll. Down 10% is inevitable at some point, especially given the high valuation in large caps, but I’ve noticed that people tend to hugely overestimate the likelihood of down 10%. Market is always far more likely to go up 10% than down, from any given point.… https://t.co/225TcYNX7o
During every correction, the stats about how far off the median stock is from a 52-week high sounds eye-popping. But... the average median drawdown at any time is 13% @StrategasRP chart.. And it rarely gets lower than 5% https://t.co/zG8U1jTArP
Here's a way we analyze sentiment: Are people more/less bullish than they should be given the fall in $SPX? We know historically that prices are better at predicting sentiment than vice versa. Today investors are MORE bearish than EXPECTED given $SPX DECLINE. https://t.co/YPC1PrQU9t