Historically, when bearish sentiment in the AAII poll surpasses 50% for five straight weeks, US stocks have shown an average return of 21% over the next 12 months, with positive returns occurring 100% of the time since 1990 Via @RyanDetrick https://t.co/cIF6ONuUIE
‼️Individual investors are bearish as if there is a crisis: The share of retail investors expressing BEARISH sentiment in the AAII survey has been ABOVE 50% for 5 weeks straight. This is in line with the streaks recorded during the 2022 bear market and the Financial Crisis. https://t.co/snqAs01wE1
% of consumers expecting higher stock prices in the next year fell in march by 8.5 percentage points ... the largest drop in the history of the UMich survey (this component goes back to 2002) https://t.co/RDdbGE8OMa







The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey indicates a persistent bearish outlook among individual investors, with over 50% expressing bearish sentiment for the fifth consecutive week. This marks only the fourth occurrence of such a streak since 1987, with previous instances recorded in October 2022 and January 2008 during significant market downturns. Additionally, 37% of U.S. consumers now expect stock prices to decline over the next 12 months, the highest proportion in a year, reflecting a notable decrease from 46% last month, which is the largest monthly drop since the 2020 market crash. The percentage of consumers anticipating higher stock prices has also fallen by 8.5 percentage points in March, the most substantial decline in the history of the University of Michigan survey since its inception in 2002. Historically, when bearish sentiment in the AAII poll exceeds 50% for five consecutive weeks, U.S. stocks have averaged a return of 21% over the following year, with positive returns occurring 100% of the time since 1990.