
The E-mini S&P 500 futures ($ES_F) market has exhibited choppy and low liquidity trading conditions from April 14 to April 16, 2025. Market participants noted a bearish close with higher lows and higher highs, indicating mixed signals. On April 15, the market experienced a true gap up but encountered responsive sellers near last week's high, particularly around the 5480 resistance level, which traders cautioned against going long near. The price action showed a narrow value area with an 80% weekly probability of dropping from the previous week's value area high (5391) to the value area low (5036) if bulls failed to reclaim 5419. Technical analysis indicated the market was forming a bullish structure between 5413 and 5425 with potential targets above 5460, but breaking below 5400 would shift focus to short positions targeting 5370 and 5340. The market tested support levels multiple times, weakening them, with key levels at 5350, 5328, and 5298, and further support at 5263 and 5251. The market's directional bias turned negative as prices traded below primary clusters, suggesting caution for long-only traders. Despite attempts by bulls to hold the bottom green zone and traverse the yellow zone, the market remained volatile with bearish imbalances and choppy traps observed in morning sessions. The monthly volume-weighted average price (VWAP) near 5320 has held above in the past week but was being tested again as of April 16. Overall, the market showed a struggle between buyers and sellers amid low liquidity and narrow trading ranges.

















$ES -- first support initially held, but then we got the churn and I posted that and market traded down to our second support. Our premarket report sent to your inbox early AM, usually before 6:00 am Chicago. https://t.co/pCYME2GI5U J Auto Trading Strategies, LLC Think https://t.co/N78m9hIRj7
One basic principle of technical analysis is levels weaken with successive tests. 5350 was tested 5-6x, I posted it was weak for this reason. We lost it & down we went. 5328, 5298 were sell targets & just arrived at ~5298 5263, 5251 are below. ES must reclaim 5350 to rally hard https://t.co/YTSTNtR4bf
$ES_F also nearing monthly VWAP test at 5320 which has held above the past week, pretty normal pullback so far to top of weekly value area that often needs to be test each week