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The equity put-to-call ratio has dropped to 0.44 on Friday, the lowest level since July 2023, indicating a significant decrease in the appetite for hedging against a stock market decline. This is also the second-lowest level since March 2022, placing the ratio in euphoric territory. The S&P 500 index has outperformed global asset signals correlated to risk sentiment by +2.17% over the last 20 days. Despite this bullish sentiment, there is skepticism about the sustainability of the market's upward trend.
Our latest look at S&P sector correlations to the market as a whole finds that investor sentiment remains bullish, but not excessively so. The current rally has room to run before correlations get to levels like in July 2023 or July 2024, when a pullback was all but assured.…
Many indexes and sectors are entering their most favorable seasonal period of the year. Will it matter in 2024? It's hard to predict. Nevertheless, @jaykaeppel highlighted the seasonal history of several ETFs in a recent piece. https://t.co/G9U7zXhTTQ
Over the last 20 days, we have generally seen the S&P index outperform the signals from global assets correlated to risk sentiment. The S&P has outperformed the model by +2.17% cumulatively during the period. https://t.co/smhFL4hOsn
