Flow specialists at Goldman Sachs expect the S&P 500 to build on its recent advance in the first half of July, supported by improved liquidity, declining volatility and waning recession concerns. The bank told clients that historical patterns, coupled with roughly $80 billion of projected global equity demand, point to further gains before momentum tapers off in August. Seasonality data underpin the call. Since 1928 the benchmark has delivered an average July gain of about 1.7%, the highest of any month, and has finished higher 80% of the time since 2005. The index has not posted a negative July since 2014 and has already risen roughly 25% from its April lows. Goldman nonetheless cautions that profit-taking and a packed economic-data calendar could curb the rally as summer progresses.
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has posted an average overall gain of 1.7% in July…historically, the best performing month of the year https://t.co/0TcbcKhlJL
We just released our updated Market Seasonality Report — a look at how markets $SPX tend to behave during different months, days, and quarters using data going back to 1975. Here’s what stands out for July: • +1.1% average monthly return for the S&P 500 • Last 10 July's 100% https://t.co/KOf1xTYODO
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