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JPMorgan has estimated that leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will need to sell approximately $23 billion in U.S. equity exposure by the close of trading today, which is expected to weigh heavily on U.S. tech stocks. The selling pressure is attributed to the need for these funds to manage their risk limits as volatility increases. Analysts have noted that the market may experience significant fluctuations as these funds engage in time-weighted average price (TWAP) selling to mitigate risk. There are indications that forced selling could lead to further downward pressure on stock prices, particularly as liquidity providers look to offload positions ahead of the market close.
Today’s actual close could be a battle. People who got ahead of things in late February will be willing liquidity providers to get flat - but no sense doing it much before the forced selling trying to make sure 4pm is the low print of the day. Games within the game.
JPM estimated that leveraged ETFs would need to trim their exposure by ~$23 billion into the close today. Might explain this late-afternoon puke.
TWAP selling to get ahead of F9 on risk limits will likely need to start earlier today than yesterday. Price action this AM was discretionary stop outs, suspect indicative of further forced stop outs at the close. Will of course be competing with levered ETF selling.