JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s trading desk has adopted a tactically bullish stance on U.S. equities, anticipating a market drift higher supported by ongoing strong earnings from mega-cap technology companies and the potential announcement of a trade deal. This outlook comes amid recent market turbulence, including a 6% decline in the S&P 500 this year, which has translated into a 14% loss for some foreign investors when factoring in currency effects. The U.S. dollar has weakened about 7.4% over the past three months, contributing to losses for foreign holders of U.S. equities. Despite this, currency hedging among foreign investors remains relatively low at 23%, compared to nearly 50% during the 2020 peak, suggesting room for increased hedging activity that could cover an additional $5 trillion of foreign U.S. equity exposure. Investors are reassessing their exposure to U.S. capital markets and the dollar, with some leveraged clients reducing their positions. Market focus remains on yields, the U.S. dollar, and commodities including gold, silver, oil, copper, and Bitcoin. JPMorgan notes that while the market is expected to trend upwards absent negative news, volatility risks persist.
Global Currencies and Bonds aren’t chasing US Equity headlines. $USD still -7.4% in 3M. $FXE, $FXY, $FXF → Bullish @Hedgeye TREND
JP Morgan turns Bullish on U.S. Stocks but warns they could still go down. Up or Down, got it $JPM, thanks a lot 🫡🙏 https://t.co/0hNYTy8nVR
La mesa de operaciones de JPMorgan está adoptando una postura tácticamente alcista con respecto a las acciones estadounidenses, y predice que los factores favorables. Entérate de más: https://t.co/zx28B7PsSX 📸: Scott Eells/Bloomberg https://t.co/I2vM9VKPQf