The first half of 2025 marked one of the weakest performances for the S&P 500 in decades, with the index gaining only about 5%. In contrast, global equities outside the U.S. outperformed significantly, with the MSCI World Excluding USA index rallying 17%, resulting in a 12 percentage point outperformance over the S&P 500 β the largest margin in 26 years. European equities led year-to-date gains, supported partly by the euro's appreciation against the U.S. dollar and multiple expansions, with the Europe ETF (VGK) up approximately 9.3% in euro terms, closely matching the S&P 500's 7.3% gain in dollar terms. Despite the broader underperformance of the U.S. market, the S&P 493 index outperformed the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks in the first half of 2025. Since the market bottom on April 8, the U.S. technology sector (XLK) has experienced a sharp V-shaped recovery, rising over 43%, far exceeding the S&P 500's 26.5% gain over the same period, marking one of the largest short-term rallies in history. Additionally, stocks without earnings in the Russell 3000 have averaged gains of 36% since April 8, with some companies more than tripling in value, indicating a risk-on market sentiment. Precious metals like gold and silver have led year-to-date returns with gains around 25%, although recent momentum has shifted toward technology, communications, and financial sectors as investors assess whether this strength will persist into the third quarter.
Wild stat⦠Since April 8th stock market bottom, the 858 Russell 3000 stocks w/ *no* earnings have since posted avg gains of 36%. 10 of those companies have more than tripled. S&P 500 up 26%. *Risk on* via @jackpitcher20 https://t.co/mTl0FKadfj
Midyear Momentum Check π₯ Gold and silver still lead YTD (+25%) but rotation is underway. Tech, Comms, and Financials have taken the lead over the last month. Now we find out if short-term strength becomes Q3 conviction. https://t.co/EmBAjKFIr2
YTD $SPY 7.3% $VGK Europe ETF in euro terms +9.3% Pretty close. @StockCharts https://t.co/RxSz1UQx3U