The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is trading near critical levels, fluctuating between $468.50 and $471. A breakdown below $470 could lead to further downside, while a move above $471 may push the ETF toward $477. Analysts are also eyeing the impact of the upcoming March options expiration (OPEX) on market dynamics. Trend-following Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have turned aggressively bearish, with Q-CTA positioning collapsing into negative territory. Reports indicate that CTAs are now short $18.6 billion in U.S. equities, ranking in the 0th percentile historically, after selling $33 billion over the past week. Stabilization in CTA flows could potentially reverse the trend. Implied volatility (IV) for QQQ remains elevated, with short-term IV declining slightly and longer-dated expirations stabilizing. The VIX futures have dropped by 10%, signaling the first signs of implied volatility contraction. Analysts suggest this could indicate a potential shift in market sentiment.