The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has experienced its steepest correction in over a year, declining from above 6100 in March to near 5000 in April before attempting a bounce that has stalled under resistance levels around 5500. Volatility remains elevated, with implied volatility (IV) spiking sharply, especially in short-dated out-of-the-money (OTM) puts, reflecting aggressive hedging and a market expectation of continued short-term turbulence. Despite recent rebounds, including a 6.9% gain from Monday's low and a 5.7% increase over the last two sessions, momentum is weak and sentiment fragile, with option market indicators showing a lack of conviction behind the bounce. Key levels for the S&P 500 remain in a volatile range between approximately 5200 and 5370, with traders cautious about whether the index can sustain gains above 5500. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remains elevated, underscoring ongoing uncertainty. Individual stocks such as Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and Nvidia Corp (NVDA) exhibit heightened volatility in their options markets. Tesla's implied volatility exceeds 220%, with a steep skew and bearish momentum signals despite a 4.6% price increase to $237.97, suggesting traders are pricing in continued risk and potential turbulence. Nvidia's options market also shows elevated short-term implied volatility and steep skew, indicating demand for downside protection amid a volatile regime. Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) similarly displays rising front-end implied volatility above 160%, signaling aggressive short-term risk pricing. Overall, options traders are positioning for continued wild swings in equity markets, with expectations of daily moves of 1% or more in the S&P 500 through at least May 23, 2025. The market remains in a fragile state, with a need for a clear shift in sentiment to confirm a sustained bottom and reduce downside risk.
NVIDIA Liquidity Thread (as of 2025-04-23 14:00 EST) 1/ $NVDA is in a positive gamma regime, with calls dominating the options landscape. This often implies more stable price action as dealers hedge by buying dips. https://t.co/aJUJa5Hwjf
$SPX https://t.co/hqHDP6DGH9
$SPX looks like a small bear flag. Watch out below if we lose lod *NFA https://t.co/iYWxlJhOD0 https://t.co/LRtSFnkINx