The S&P 500 index has shown a notable recovery, closing above its 50-day moving average for the first time since February 21, 2025, signaling a potential new support level. This rebound follows a bounce off April lows, though trend-following funds remain cautious, with quantitative trend-following (Q-CTA) exposure still negative, indicating a lack of systematic support for the rally. Market volatility, measured by the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), has remained subdued, trading mostly between 23 and 28, despite recent negative GDP data. Options market activity reveals elevated implied volatility for downside protection, especially in deep out-of-the-money puts on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and S&P 500 (SPX), reflecting ongoing hedging demand and persistent tail risk concerns. Call option interest is concentrated around the 6000 level on the SPX, while puts are stacked between 5200 and 5550, indicating a tightly hedged market range. Key levels for the SPX include a call wall at 6000 and various gamma exposure points between 5300 and 5800. The market has experienced intraday volatility with short-term traders locking in profits around 10 AM, and stocks such as Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL) have influenced price movements. Despite the rally, caution remains as momentum indicators show early signs of froth, and volatility skew remains steep, suggesting that investors are still paying premiums for crash protection amid lingering macroeconomic risks.
#SPX on a potential TRAP! Alert! The index just completed its first 4H Golden Cross since January 23 and second since August 21 2024. The latter in particular looks very similar to today's as it was also formed after a substantial correction (not as strong as the recent one https://t.co/Ctuf5kvY9H
QQQ vol surface shows steep short-dated skew + elevated front-end IV — traders paying up for downside protection as macro risks linger. Vol remains sticky even as price stabilizes. Not out of the woods yet. https://t.co/KurXKNGXm5
$VIX #Gamma Open Interest https://t.co/BcoV3aObcv