
Recent data indicates a concerning trend for the S&P 500, with fewer than 40% of its stocks trading above their 100-day moving average, marking the lowest level since November 2023, excluding a brief period from December 24 to January 25. Additionally, only 48% of S&P 500 stocks are currently above their 200-day moving average, with 36 stocks crossing below this threshold recently. This decline has resulted in the highest percentage of S&P 500 members reaching new 52-week lows since October 2023, with 9% of the index's constituents hitting these lows. The index is also experiencing a weak bounce, with only 45% of its members trading above their 50-day moving average. Furthermore, cross-asset models indicate a projected loss of approximately 0.30% for the S&P 500 ahead of the New York market opening, while futures are down by about 1.15%. Over the past 20 days, the S&P has underperformed relative to global assets, with a cumulative underperformance of about 6.06%.
The folks at Leuthold Group recently noted numerous divergences among indices when the S&P 500 made its new high in February. When we approximate this test since 1928, we can confirm how extended these divergences have been. Stocks, in general, have fared poorly in the months… https://t.co/q3NZ2NOCix
Over the last 20 days, we have generally seen the S&P index underperform the signals from global assets correlated to risk sentiment. The S&P has underperformed the model by -6.06% cumulatively during the period. https://t.co/gs8k1BL2wa
Ahead of the NY Open, our cross-asset model indicates a -0.29% loss for the S&P (while futures are down -1.18% since prior close). The signal from Rates is most bullish (+0.10%), while the signal from Global Equities is least bullish (-0.48%). https://t.co/iCIpFXrqME












