過去100年の歴史で米国株は73%の確率で上昇し、20%以上の下落は僅か6%に過ぎない。大幅下落後は回復が顕著で、2002年ITバブル崩壊の-23%の翌年は+26%、2008年リーマンショックの-38%の翌年は+23%、2022年の-19%の翌年は+24%と続いた。重要なのは短期の変動に惑わされず、長期で市場に居続けることだ。 https://t.co/nNy3O10rvM
S&P 500 index intra-year drawdowns of… -1% happens every year -5% happens every 1.1 years on average -10% happens every 1.6 years on average -15% happens every 2.5 years on average -20% happens every 4 years on average -30% happens every 10 years on average
The S&P 500’s historical drawdown stats (like "a 10% drop happens every 1.6 years") are useful, but they have limitations because markets don’t follow "normal" patterns. First, "fat tails" mean extreme crashes (like -30%) happen more often than stat 101 models predict—think of it https://t.co/9qsqi4t6GG


The S&P 500 Index has experienced drawdowns 92% of the time since 1950, indicating that for equity investors, market fluctuations are an inherent part of investing. Historical data shows that intra-year drawdowns occur regularly, with a 1% drop happening annually, a 5% decline every 1.1 years on average, a 10% fall every 1.6 years, a 15% drop every 2.5 years, a 20% decline every 4 years, and a 30% drop approximately every decade. Analysts caution that while these statistics are informative, they have limitations due to the unpredictable nature of markets, which can experience extreme downturns more frequently than traditional models suggest. Furthermore, historical trends indicate that after significant declines, the market tends to recover, with notable rebounds following past downturns, such as a 26% increase the year after a 23% drop in 2002 and a 23% rise after a 38% decline in 2008.