On August 19, 2025, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) experienced volatility, initially moving higher but failing to reclaim the 6455 level, which triggered a downward push. The index broke below its recent range low, bouncing near the 9-day moving average around 6420, a critical support level. Analysts noted that holding above 6420 is essential to prevent a further decline toward 6400. Technical patterns such as a potential short-term head and shoulders formation suggest the SPX could retest the neckline near 6441 or drop to around 6401. Market liquidity indicators showed a sharp decline in net gamma exposure (Net GEX) to -99.8 million, a 118% drop from the previous day, alongside a decrease in daily equity volume (DEX) to $1.93 trillion, down 10.5%. Put options dominated open interest, particularly at the 6400 strike, indicating bearish sentiment. The Nasdaq saw increased long put buying, with Meta Platforms (META) implicated in triggering downside repricing. Despite the corrective ABC downward structure to the daily fair value gap (FVG) support, the overall setup remains cautiously bullish, with potential for the SPX to reach new highs above 6482 and extend gains within the August rally's Fibonacci retracement levels. However, failure to hold the 6400 level could prompt a defensive stance, with put options becoming more attractive. Meta Platforms is also under scrutiny, with a possible drop to 740 if it fails to maintain 750.
TRADE PLAN for WEDNESDAY. ✅ $SPX made a 1600 pt run since April. It looks a bit overextended in the short term. It may be time to get a little more defensive if $SPX fails to hold 6400 this week. Puts can work under 6400. $META to 740 in play if it fails to hold 750 tomorrow.
$SPX produced a corrective ABC down structure to the Daily FVG support. The structure remains bullish setting up for a new high above 6482 with upside to extend 38.2-50-61.8% of the August rally. However, the loss of today’s low is a warning that we will close below the FVG https://t.co/pPK2MUDuC1
$SPX liquidity update: Gamma flips deeper negative Net GEX drops to -99.8M, down -118% since yesterday. DEX eases to $1.93T (-10.5%). P/C ratio at 1.35 with puts dominating heavy OI stacked at 6400 puts & 6500 calls. https://t.co/v87BWfhrFs