Ahead of the New York market open on August 27, 2025, cross-asset models projected a slight decline in the S&P 500 index, with forecasts indicating losses between 0.16% and 0.21%. Despite these short-term bearish signals, the S&P 500 has outperformed global risk sentiment indicators over the past 20 days, exceeding model expectations by approximately 2.7%. Signals from foreign exchange and interest rates showed modest bullish tendencies, while global equities remained the least optimistic. Market analysts highlight that over 75% of stocks in three of the four major cyclical sectors are trading above their 200-day moving averages, a pattern historically associated with strong gains in the subsequent year. Additionally, a notable increase in the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive three-month forward revenue and earnings changes suggests continued strength for the index. Although global equities outside the U.S. have lagged behind, recent breakouts and key drivers point to potential further upside, despite prevailing investor skepticism.
Over the last 20 days, we have generally seen the S&P index outperform the signals from global assets correlated to risk sentiment. The S&P has outperformed the model by +2.7% cumulatively during the period. https://t.co/n7q7t1s9jq
2 Hours ahead of the NY Open, our cross-asset model indicates a -0.21% loss for the S&P (while futures are down -0.06% since prior close). The signal from Rates is most bullish (+0.01%), while the signal from Global Equities is least bullish (-0.34%). https://t.co/GADH1H9THS
Over 75% of stocks in three of four major cyclical sectors are now above their 200-day averages. Such strong participation near a high has historically led to robust gains over the following year. 🔗 Read @DeanChristians's Aug 25 article "Renewed strength in cyclical sector https://t.co/ZiA0bJaYJO