S&P 500 Posts May 5% Gain, Outperforms Models by Up to 4% Despite Bearish FX and Equities Signals
In the days leading up to the New York market open on June 12 and 13, 2025, cross-asset models indicated expected losses for the S&P 500 index ranging from -0.16% to -0.36%, with futures showing declines between -0.28% and -1.15%. Commodities signals were the most bullish, fluctuating between -0.07% and +0.37%, while foreign exchange (FX) and global equities signals were the least bullish, with FX signals around -0.35% and global equities signals as low as -0.69%. Despite these bearish signals from correlated global assets, the S&P 500 has consistently outperformed the model predictions over the past 20 days, exceeding them by between +1.81% and +4.09% cumulatively. Additionally, after three consecutive months of losses, the S&P 500 posted a gain of more than 5% in May 2025. Historical data suggests that such a rebound following a period of pessimism often precedes positive stock performance in the following year, with average gains of 19.2% observed in similar past scenarios. This pattern aligns with the recent extreme pessimistic sentiment observed over the previous eight to nine weeks.
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Exante Data
Over the last 20 days, we have generally seen the S&P index outperform the signals from global assets correlated to risk sentiment. The S&P has outperformed the model by +2.0% cumulatively during the period. https://t.co/XjyGCS5SU6
- Exante Data
2 Hours ahead of the NY Open, our cross-asset model indicates a -0.30% loss for the S&P (while futures are down -0.96% since prior close). The signal from Commodities is most bullish (+0.37%), while the signal from Global Equities is least bullish (-0.60%). https://t.co/DN7z9V9A4i
- Exante Data
Over the last 20 days, we have generally seen the S&P index outperform the signals from global assets correlated to risk sentiment. The S&P has outperformed the model by +1.81% cumulatively during the period. https://t.co/g8dxylzhDm
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