In the days leading up to the New York market open on June 12 and 13, 2025, cross-asset models indicated expected losses for the S&P 500 index ranging from -0.16% to -0.36%, with futures showing declines between -0.28% and -1.15%. Commodities signals were the most bullish, fluctuating between -0.07% and +0.37%, while foreign exchange (FX) and global equities signals were the least bullish, with FX signals around -0.35% and global equities signals as low as -0.69%. Despite these bearish signals from correlated global assets, the S&P 500 has consistently outperformed the model predictions over the past 20 days, exceeding them by between +1.81% and +4.09% cumulatively. Additionally, after three consecutive months of losses, the S&P 500 posted a gain of more than 5% in May 2025. Historical data suggests that such a rebound following a period of pessimism often precedes positive stock performance in the following year, with average gains of 19.2% observed in similar past scenarios. This pattern aligns with the recent extreme pessimistic sentiment observed over the previous eight to nine weeks.
Over the last 20 days, we have generally seen the S&P index outperform the signals from global assets correlated to risk sentiment. The S&P has outperformed the model by +2.0% cumulatively during the period. https://t.co/XjyGCS5SU6
2 Hours ahead of the NY Open, our cross-asset model indicates a -0.30% loss for the S&P (while futures are down -0.96% since prior close). The signal from Commodities is most bullish (+0.37%), while the signal from Global Equities is least bullish (-0.60%). https://t.co/DN7z9V9A4i
Over the last 20 days, we have generally seen the S&P index outperform the signals from global assets correlated to risk sentiment. The S&P has outperformed the model by +1.81% cumulatively during the period. https://t.co/g8dxylzhDm