One of my favorite public market “which inning are we in” indicators: Damodaran’s equity risk premium. At 5-6%, it has historically been a good time to buy. Right now, we’re below 4%, which suggests a bit of caution. (Dot-com was around 2.5%, so it can always get crazier.)
After a 20%+ yearly S&P 500 gain but under 3% in the last three months, forward 3- and 6-month returns are not good. MarketDesk $SPX $SPY https://t.co/DrjCLvR5yM
Over the last 20 days, we have generally seen the S&P index underperform the signals from global assets correlated to risk sentiment. The S&P has underperformed the model by -2.43% cumulatively during the period. https://t.co/KQrW85ofkP







Recent analysis indicates that the S&P 500 index has consistently underperformed relative to global assets correlated with risk sentiment over the past 20 days. The cumulative underperformance of the S&P 500 has varied, with figures reported at -1.86%, -1.91%, -1.76%, -2.49%, and -2.43% during this period. Additionally, a market expert noted that despite a yearly gain of over 20% for the S&P 500, the index has seen less than 3% growth in the last three months, leading to concerns about forward returns for the next three to six months. Another analyst highlighted the equity risk premium, which currently stands below 4%, suggesting a cautious approach to investing, as historically, a premium of 5-6% has been seen as a favorable buying opportunity.