Apr 18, 01:03 PM

S&P 500 Underperforms Global Signals by 5% with YTD Lag, Smart Money Index Divergence, and Mostly Flat-to-Down Projections

According to cross-asset models from ExanteData, the S&P 500 index has shown a pattern of underperformance relative to signals from global assets correlated with risk sentiment over the past 20 days, with a cumulative underperformance of approximately 5.64% to 5.69%. The models indicate mixed signals ahead of the New York market open, with global equities showing the most bullish signals and commodities or rates showing the least bullish. Year-to-date data reveals that the S&P 500 has underperformed all other major equity markets, as noted by Goldman Sachs. Additionally, the Smart Money Index has diverged from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), a pattern last observed in October 2022, suggesting that professional investors may be reentering the market. Projections for the S&P 500 for the remainder of the year are mostly flat to down, with 7 out of 11 forecasts reflecting this view. Analysis of certain high-growth companies from 2021 shows median drawdowns around 85%, highlighting the volatility and underperformance compared to top holdings in funds like ARKK, especially during periods of market euphoria.

#ExanteData #New York #Goldman Sachs #Smart Money Index #Dow Jones Industrial Average

Written with ChatGPT (GPT-4).

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