US equity futures pointed to a muted start on Monday, with S&P 500 contracts down 0.11% two hours before the New York session. ExanteData’s cross-asset model, which blends signals from foreign-exchange and rates markets, projected a 0.02% decline at the open, the least bullish reading coming from fixed-income indicators. Despite the subdued pre-market signals, the S&P 500 has consistently outperformed ExanteData’s risk-sentiment model, beating it by 2.34 percentage points over the past 20 trading days. Market leadership remains concentrated in the so-called Magnificent 7 technology giants, which have gained 13% in the last two months versus a 7.6% advance for the broader S&P 500 and a 5% rise for the equal-weighted version of the index.
Over the last 20 days, we have generally seen the S&P index outperform the signals from global assets correlated to risk sentiment. The S&P has outperformed the model by +2.34% cumulatively during the period. https://t.co/uKGf7KdtjN
2 Hours ahead of the NY Open, our cross-asset model indicates a -0.02% loss for the S&P (while futures are down -0.11% since prior close). The signal from FX is most bullish (+0.11%), while the signal from Rates is least bullish (-0.15%). https://t.co/a0ExctvZtg
Over the past 2 months: Mag 7 +13% S&P 500 +7.6% Equal-weighted S&P 500 +5% https://t.co/iNG02W4k4w