The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported a slight contraction in oil and gas production in the U.S. Eleventh District during the second quarter of 2025. The Dallas Fed's energy survey showed the business activity index fell to -8.1, the lowest level since Q2 2020, with the oil production index dropping from 5.6 in Q1 to -8.9 in Q2. Executives cited higher U.S. steel tariffs, increased drilling costs, reduced demand, margin pressures, and record-high uncertainty as factors contributing to the decline. Nearly half of surveyed firms expect to drill fewer wells in 2025 than initially planned, with 26% anticipating a significant decrease. The survey also indicated that if West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices remain at $50 per barrel over the next 12 months, 46% of executives expect a significant production decrease, and 42% expect a slight decrease. Separately, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted U.S. oil output at 13.37 million barrels per day (bpd) for both 2025 and 2026, slightly revised down from prior estimates. The EIA also projected average Brent crude prices of $68.89 per barrel in 2025 and $58.48 in 2026, with WTI prices averaging $65.22 in 2025 and $54.82 in 2026. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its 2025 World Oil Outlook, forecasting global oil demand to continue growing through at least 2050, reaching nearly 123 million bpd, an increase from 103.7 million bpd in the previous year. OPEC described rapid transitions away from fossil fuels as unrealistic and expects its market share to rise to 52% by 2050.