Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan analysts project a continued decline in the U.S. dollar against major currencies such as the euro and the Japanese yen. Goldman Sachs highlights that trade policy concerns, slowing U.S. growth, and dollar depreciation have created headwinds, leading to expectations of moderate foreign selling of U.S. equities in early 2025 driven by valuation and strategic positioning. European investors may increasingly view the additional foreign exchange risk as unattractive given lower expected returns in U.S. equity markets. JPMorgan's consensus survey anticipates the euro reaching or exceeding $1.11 by the end of 2025, implying at least an 8% depreciation of the dollar this year. Furthermore, JPMorgan suggests the dollar could decline by 10% to 20% over the medium term as it unwinds its longstanding overvaluation. Overall, these insights reflect a global repricing of assets influenced by tariffs and subdued U.S. growth expectations, which support a stronger euro versus the U.S. dollar.
#FX: USD looks to be unwinding ist longstanding #overvaluation, which could mean a 10%–20% decline over the medium term against major peers such as the #euro and Japanese #yen - chart @JPMorganAM https://t.co/NLFliUk4X0
Weak Dollar US Stagflation JP MORGAN survey consensus consensus on the weakness of the U.S. dollar, with a majority expecting the euro at or above $1.11 to end the year, at least an 8% decrease for the U.S. currency this year https://t.co/yFq2I8rQNE
"While trade policy concerns, slowing growth, and dollar depreciation have created headwinds, Goldman expects moderate foreign selling of US equities in March-April, driven by valuation opportunities and strategic positioning." GS via @ISABELNET_SA https://t.co/31lYmeFupw