
As the U.S. presidential election approaches in less than two weeks, market participants are increasingly pricing in election-related risks. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has seen a slight pullback of 1% over the past three days, following a six-week bullish trend. Analysts note that the current market conditions are characterized by near overbought levels and poor breadth, raising questions about the market's ability to maintain momentum leading into November 5. The implied volatility for the election is currently at 2%, the lowest since tracking began, indicating that market makers may not be fully accounting for potential post-election volatility. Currency traders are particularly cautious, with the Mexican Peso expected to experience significant fluctuations after the election. Additionally, the VIX, which measures market volatility, is being closely monitored, with levels of 27 and 35 seen as potential buy signals in the current bull market. Overall, the market sentiment remains cautious as traders brace for potential volatility ahead of the election.








$SPY If you are a bear, it has to be quite worrying that you got 4 red days in a row (NICE!) but it's shallow. We are only -1.5% off the ATH's set last week. In Aug and Sept, 4 days of red wiped away -10% and -5% easily. Just my 2c and observation. Bears need an ACTUAL flush.
$SPX % of stocks above 50 day MA also been slipping since last week, another reason why was thinking can get a post OPEX pullback. Really strong bull market if can look beyond 1-2 weeks though and sentiment still not that stretched to upside, end of October selloffs often a… https://t.co/bA7t3eHhn1
we've got more granularity now on option prices around the Election (what are you up to on 11/6 btw?)...so here's a risk premium that is off the page. the 11/4 TLT at the money straddle is 15.75 vol and 2.28% of spot...the 11/6 straddle is 22.6 vol and 3.47% of spot, a 52%…