
Following the presidential election that concluded two weeks ago, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have gained significant attention for their accuracy in forecasting outcomes compared to traditional polls. Despite this, skepticism persists about their long-term viability and impact. Open interest on Polymarket surged to $511 million before the election but has since declined by over 80% to $100 million, with much of the recent activity driven by sports betting and cryptocurrency markets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Analysts like Lionel R. Laurent and John Authers have expressed doubts about prediction markets being the future of polling, suggesting that their post-election popularity might be overstated. However, platforms like Kalshi argue that prediction markets provide a more reliable and less manipulable alternative to traditional public polls for election forecasting.

Its been a few weeks since the election, and prediction markets are still being cited frequently. Prediction markets have crossed the chasm and are here to stay. Will not be long before someone figures out futarchy, with some early contenders like @MetaDAOProject. https://t.co/jyhU0J08tZ
Kinda cool how mainstream/respectable prediction markets have become! https://t.co/By0tJe7VkC
.@Kalshi has demonstrated that many public polls are not only irrelevant and outdated but also easily manipulated. The future of election forecasting lies with reliable prediction markets like Kalshi rather than traditional public polls. https://t.co/ifwccwIS0V