The performance of the S&P 500 in the lead-up to U.S. presidential elections has historically been a strong predictor of election outcomes. A statistic highlights that since 1936, the S&P 500's performance in the three months before an election has accurately predicted the winner 83% of the time. Typically, if stocks rise, the incumbent party tends to win, while a decline in stock prices often indicates a loss for the incumbent. Since 1960, there have been only three instances where the S&P 500 declined during a presidential election year, all occurring when no incumbent was running. Historical data shows that in years without an incumbent, the stock market has performed positively four out of five times, with an average annual return of nearly 17%. Recent discussions have also focused on the seasonality of the S&P 500 during election years, particularly from June to August, examining the impact of whether a Republican or Democrat is in office.