Vietnam’s Q2 GDP Growth Hits 7.96% on Strong Exports, Fitch Upgrades Forecast to 7.2%, Amid 20% U.S. Tariffs and Loan Growth

Vietnam's economy accelerated in the second quarter of 2025, driven primarily by strong export performance and a new trade agreement with the United States. The GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at approximately 7.96% year-on-year, contributing to a 7.5% increase in GDP for the first half of the year. This growth was fueled by foreign buyers rushing to purchase Vietnamese goods ahead of threatened U.S. tariffs, which were initially set as high as 46% but later reduced to 20% on many Vietnamese products by the Trump administration. In response to these developments, Fitch Ratings upgraded Vietnam's 2025 GDP growth forecast from 6.4% to 7.2%. The country's central bank reported a 9.9% increase in total outstanding bank loans by the end of June compared to the end of 2024 and announced it would maintain flexible monetary policies focused on supporting economic growth for the remainder of the year. The central bank also noted moderate consumer price index (CPI) growth in the first half of 2025, allowing room for stronger credit expansion, while remaining vigilant about inflation risks and the impact of higher U.S. tariffs on the economy and currency. Overall, Vietnam's economic outlook is bolstered by robust exports and favorable trade relations with the U.S., despite ongoing global uncertainties and tariff pressures.