Argentine stocks experienced notable volatility in late June and early July 2025 amid a challenging global environment marked by heightened risk aversion and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The S&P Merval index saw declines of up to 5.3% ahead of a key MSCI decision, reflecting investor caution. However, improved global market sentiment led to a rebound, with the S&P Merval rising as much as 8% and marking its best performance in six weeks. Despite this recovery, the market faced renewed pressure following an adverse U.S. court ruling related to YPF, Argentina's state-controlled oil company. YPF shares plunged between 5% and 7% on Wall Street, triggering a contagion effect across other Argentine assets. The fallout from the ruling also contributed to an increase in country risk, with spreads reaching 701 basis points, and a weakening Argentine peso amid rising demand for dollars ahead of the South American winter holidays. While Argentine stocks and bonds showed signs of recovery in early July, dollar-denominated bonds continued to decline, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty. The situation remains fluid as investors weigh the implications of the U.S. judicial decision on YPF and broader macroeconomic factors.
Argentina’s peso is weakening as seasonal demand for dollars picks up ahead of the South American winter holidays, @simauchi_ reports https://t.co/7J5sK2EFfW https://t.co/xxbeIVPHF6
Argentina’s peso extends its slide as seasonal demand for dollars picks up ahead of the South American winter holidays https://t.co/jhVqArEIDB
Mercados: sube la Bolsa en el segundo día de recuperación tras el fallo por YPF https://t.co/f9TcmI1ahe