Middle East News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Approval < 35%

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

trump gets hospitalized

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Vances have another kid

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

USA experiences a recession.

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump visits Africa

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

10% fewer government agencies

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump and Obama shake hands

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Dow rises above 65,000

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump says a racial slur

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

US national bitcoin reserve created

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Tesla

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Joe Biden dies

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

New national park created

BTC falls below $38,000

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

War is declared against another nation

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

The department of education gets desolved

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Repeal obamacare

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

JD Vance elected President

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Another pandemic

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

Trump runs for a third term

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

NATO invokes Article 5

Trump gets covid (again)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Trump gets shot

Approval < 25%

Trump announces he is tired of winning

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump dies

Trump loses the fake tan

Anthony Fauci is indicted

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

55 or more Republican senate seats

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Record level unemployment

54 or more Republican senate seats

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Cannabis is federally legalized

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

Trump is assassinated

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

A national ban on gender-affirming care

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Starship lands on Mars

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Trump bans abortion nationwide

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

"covfefe" posted again

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump and Melania divorce

Ann Selzer arrested

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

The Jews control at least one nation's government

The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger

Imane Khelif is intersex

Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.

Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)

The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015

DHMO in the water supply

Dream faked the Manhunt videos

Osama bin Laden didn't act alone

Santa is rigged

That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)

√-1 isn't real

Smartphones listen in on private conversations

The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war

Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others

Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island

Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation

Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.

Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team

US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices

The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese

ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.

Groundhog Day is rigged

That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam

Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers

Gamergate was right

The NBA rigs the draft lottery

The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West

Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)

China was not genociding Uyghurs

Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself

Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.

Annie Altman's abuse claims

The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin

John McAfee didn't kill himself

At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents

The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.

An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips

Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does

Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations

Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.

FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war

The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only

The Clintons assasinated their rivals

This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba

Eliezer wrote The Erogamer

The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)

Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage

Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA

China made covid 19 in a lab

Rory Stewart worked for MI6

At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population

Eating your veggies is bad for your health

The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022

The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.

Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT

As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator

Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays

My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.

Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)

@strutheo is @notrickspringfield

Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.

Dead Internet theory

Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency

Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.

lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀

The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship

The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.

Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen

Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.

The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent

A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products

Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time

Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars

Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US

ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.

The CIA killed JFK

Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.

The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior

The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth

Sue Gray was a spy

Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy

We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.

The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.

Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)

covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese

The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop

Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real

Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.

The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up

Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election

Epstein was alive as of Jan 2026, but dead in the meantime since his "suicide"

"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024

Princess Diana was assassinated

The NFL is rigged

Jeffrey Epstein is still alive

Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator

US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily

Harold Holt murdered

Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle

COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health

A cure for cancer has already been found

Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot

South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023

Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)

The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws

Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure

Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem

Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")

Ogopogo is real

QAnon

Exercise is bad for your health

A support network of close friendships is bad for your health

Israel killed JFK

Bush did 9/11

Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)

Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so

carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming

Allen Iverson invented A.I.

The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around

Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency

Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice

Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)

QR codes are satanic

Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics

The Hellenistic civilization invented USB

Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese

South Sudan has had nukes since 2023

Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme

Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.

China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab

Human didnt evolve from apes

Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health

Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension

Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina

Jerry Sandusky is innocent.

Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight

Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization

Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic

xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition

@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie

Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s

Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations

Rationalussy isn't real.

Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.

Tupac is still alive in 2024

Bielefeld does not exist

The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen

Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first

The Mandella Effect in general is real

The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab

The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.

US government is harboring aliens

Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent

Birds aren't real

climate change isn't human caused

Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil

The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier

Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP

Climate change isn’t real

The moon landing was fake

The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024

You personally live in Truman Show style captivity

The Romance languages are not descended from Latin

The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization

The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.

The illuminati runs the world

*All* health care is net negative for health

Q is Putin

Michelle Obama is a man

Brazilian money is not real

Yeti is real or similar creature

Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina

The earth is a dodecahedron

Skibidi Toilet is real

It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears

Africa isn't real

HIV doesn’t cause AIDS

Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team

There is no female orgasm

The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.

The earth is flat

*All* vaccines are net negative for health

End of the world in 2012

Earth is hollow

Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.

Finland isn't real

Australia isn't real.

5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on

Nuclear weapons have never existed

Flossing is bad for your health

Brushing your teeth is bad for your health

Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person

The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.

Iran launches retaliatory missile/drone strikes on Israel within 72 hours

Iran attacks a US military base in the Middle East within 7 days

Iran closes or attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days

Crude oil prices exceed $90/barrel within 7 days

Any Iranian nuclear facilities are confirmed struck

The US Congress invokes or debates the War Powers Resolution within 30 days

>= 10 American soldiers are killed

A new Supreme Leader is formally named within 30 days

Iran launch strikes directly targeting Saudi oil infrastructure within 14 days

Operation Epic Fury strikes continue >= 14 consecutive days

Crude oil prices exceed $100/barrel

Mojtaba Khamenei is publicly announced as Supreme Leader within 14 days

Crude oil prices exceed $110/barrel

>= 10 Israeli soldiers are killed

Israel launches a full ground invasion into Lebanon

Houthis launch a confirmed attack on a US Navy vessel

Houthis/Yemen officially announce they are joining the war

A senior IRGC commander or provincial governor publicly defects

Mojtaba Khamenei is killed by a US/Israel strike within 30 days

Iran assassinates an Israeli/US government leader

Major European mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

A US Navy vessel is struck or damaged by an Iranian anti-ship missile in the Strait of Hormuz

Chinese-mediated ceasefire or de-escalation framework occurs

Major US mainland terrorist attack by pro-Iran terrorists

Iran-linked hackers cause a major disruption (outage >24 hr) to US/Israel

100+ civilian deaths in Israel

A nuclear weapon is used offensively

QatarEnergy resumes LNG production within 14 days

Ayatollah Khamenei makes a public address within 48 hours

US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

US ground troops enter Iran by May 1, 2026

Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

The US-Iran war remains ongoing as of December 31, 2026

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

US military casualties exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

South-East Asia

Oceania

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

North America

Mexico / Central America / Caribbean

South America

Northern Europe (Nordics and British Isles)

Eastern Europe / Central Asia (Former USSR)

Western Europe (France to Poland)

Southern Europe (Iberian Peninsula, Italy, Balkans, Greece)

Middle East & Northern Africa

NO

NO

YES

North America

Asia and Australasia

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Western Europe

Latin America and the Caribbean

YES

YES

YES