RBA’s Hauser Welcomes CPI Data, Expects Gradual Cash-Rate Drift to 3.2%

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the latest consumer-price index figures were “very welcome,” noting that the trimmed-mean measure matched the central bank’s projections. Speaking at a conference in Sydney, he endorsed the introduction of a new, comprehensive monthly CPI series and said officials would study how the monthly trimmed measure compares with the traditional quarterly gauge. Hauser reiterated that Australia’s labour market remains close to full employment, with unemployment running in line with RBA forecasts. He added that consumer spending shows tentative signs of recovery, although confidence is still subdued. On the policy outlook, Hauser said the RBA’s baseline projections assume the cash rate will decline gradually toward 3.2%. He cautioned that differing estimates of the neutral rate do not directly dictate policy decisions. Turning to global risks, the deputy governor said the worst of the threatened U.S. tariff escalation and related retaliation has so far not materialised, but he warned the full impact of the levies—calling them a “true tax increase” on the U.S. economy—is yet to be felt.